434
FXUS61 KBGM 060825
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
425 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK AS NEWER HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE IS INTEGRATED INTO THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
2) AFTER A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY,
ANOTHER RIDGING PATTERN WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORTWAVE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE, WHICH SHOULD KICK OFF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER, MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NY INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
SLOWLY TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION.
WE'RE SEEING INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP ALIGN
OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELED
PARAMETERS OF UP TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE, WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR, AND SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW
FOR ANY STORMS THAT ARE TRIGGERED TO BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER,
THE ONGOING UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF THE FRONT IS COMING TO A
CLEARER CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS. IF SEVERE STORMS WERE TO
DEVELOP, THE MAIN THREATS INCLUDE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS, AS
WELL AS HAIL.
EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING DAYTIME CONVECTION AND SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR A RATHER UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS,
WHICH THE CONSENSUS FOR THE SURFACE FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS TO
BEGIN TO TRACK INTO OUR AREA, MEANING ANY TRIGGERED STORMS COULD
GROW FAST INTO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
CURRENTLY, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT WOULD
BE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER SOUTH AND EAST INTO NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MORNING DAYTIME CONVECTION
AND SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NY, CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS IS A
LITTLE LOWER, SINCE THIS MAY DECREASE THE TIME FOR
DESTABILIZATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER RIDGING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE
TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL SLIDE EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE
RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO RETURN, PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. WE MAY
SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS MIDWEEK AS A TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND ANOTHER RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL US, BUT GUIDANCE IS TOO VARIED AT THIS
TIME FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS MORNING. BY THE MID-MORNING, SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM A BATCH OF RAIN
SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE THAT MOST TERMINALS STILL REMAIN
VFR.
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR RESTRICTIONS START TO MOVE IN BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES THROUGH. IF ANY TERMINAL IS IMPACTED BY A HEAVIER
DOWNPOUR, BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THAT
BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE IN SEEING IFR RESTRICTIONS IS CURRENTLY
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MOST OF THE RAIN CLEARS THE AREA
BY 03Z, BUT SOME LINGERING LOW CEILINGS AND/OR PATCHY FOG WILL
RESULT IN SOME LINGERING RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, OTHERWISE BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/KL
AVIATION...BJG
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