096
FXUS61 KBGM 061712
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
112 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS INTO THIS EVENING.
2) THE HEAT RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE THREAT FOR
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS THE GREATEST CONCERN, BUT THERE IS
ALSO A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR A COUPLE LOW-END TORNADOES AS WELL.
A BATCH OF WEAK, DECAYING CONVECTION ROLLED EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND PRODUCED MOSTLY A QUICK 0.2 INCH OF RAIN
WITH NO LIGHTNING. BEHIND THIS RAIN, A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY
AIR ALOFT MOVED IN AND HAS LEFT MOST OF THE REGION UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO GET GOING IN ONEIDA
COUNTY, BUT ANY PRECIP SO FAR HAS BEEN WEAK.
OUR ATTENTION IS TURNED TOWARD THE 2 PM TO 9 PM TIMEFRAME WHERE
WE ARE EXPECTING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
POTENTIALLY SOME INDIVIDUAL CELLS WHICH WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND POTENTIALLY EVOLVE INTO A
MORE SOLID LINE AS IT TRACKS OUT OF OUR AREA. A POTENT/SHARP
UPPER SHORT WAVE WITH A 90 KT JET STREAK IS ROUNDING THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT,
AND THE S/W WILL SUPPORT LARGE SCALE LIFT TO HELP DEEPEN THE
CONVECTION. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, 30-40 KT, WILL SUSTAIN
THE CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR MATURE STORM STRUCTURE. THE STORMS
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEP MOISTURE, WITH PWS AROUND 1.5
INCHES, SO THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM SOME RECENT NUCAPS SOUNDINGS OF A
LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WOULD LIKELY ASSIST MORE SO IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH OF HAIL.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WITH AN OVERALL
DYNAMIC WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
IF ANY OF THE STORMS CAN TAP INTO THESE WINDS AND TRANSFER THAT
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE WITH ANY DOWNDRAFTS/DOWNBURSTS, THE
THREAT FOR +50 KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE HEIGHTENED.
WE ARE ALSO WATCHING THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES AS WELL.
HRRR HODOGRAPHS IN WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF N-CENTRAL PA ARE
LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIALLY A STRONGLY SHEARED LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD ASSIST ANY STORM IN SPINNING UP A QUICK
LOW-END TORNADO. THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON (BEFORE 5 PM) AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND
INTO NE PA. RIGHT NOW, MOST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
BACKED ENOUGH, BUT IF THEY START TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY, THIS
WOULD INCREASE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 8 PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT ON SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK. THIS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AND
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME CONCERN FOR A SHORT WAVE BREAKING
OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH
WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE. THIS PATTERN REPEATS GOING INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK IN AND SEVERAL MORE
WAVES, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE, TRY TO RIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL BE A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TYPE PATTERN
LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS MORNING AND LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR RESTRICTIONS START TO MOVE IN BY THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES THROUGH. IF ANY TERMINAL IS IMPACTED BY A HEAVIER
DOWNPOUR, BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THAT
BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE IN SEEING IFR RESTRICTIONS IS CURRENTLY
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MOST OF THE RAIN CLEARS THE AREA
BY 03Z, BUT SOME LINGERING LOW CEILINGS AND/OR PATCHY FOG WILL
RESULT IN SOME LINGERING RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY AT KELM.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, OTHERWISE BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJT
AVIATION...BJG
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