458
FXUS61 KBGM 061724
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
124 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS INTO THIS EVENING.
2) THE HEAT RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE THREAT FOR
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS THE GREATEST CONCERN, BUT THERE IS
ALSO A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR A COUPLE LOW-END TORNADOES AS WELL.
A BATCH OF WEAK, DECAYING CONVECTION ROLLED EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND PRODUCED MOSTLY A QUICK 0.2 INCH OF RAIN
WITH NO LIGHTNING. BEHIND THIS RAIN, A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY
AIR ALOFT MOVED IN AND HAS LEFT MOST OF THE REGION UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO GET GOING IN ONEIDA
COUNTY, BUT ANY PRECIP SO FAR HAS BEEN WEAK.
OUR ATTENTION IS TURNED TOWARD THE 2 PM TO 9 PM TIMEFRAME WHERE
WE ARE EXPECTING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
POTENTIALLY SOME INDIVIDUAL CELLS WHICH WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND POTENTIALLY EVOLVE INTO A
MORE SOLID LINE AS IT TRACKS OUT OF OUR AREA. A POTENT/SHARP
UPPER SHORT WAVE WITH A 90 KT JET STREAK IS ROUNDING THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT,
AND THE S/W WILL SUPPORT LARGE SCALE LIFT TO HELP DEEPEN THE
CONVECTION. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, 30-40 KT, WILL SUSTAIN
THE CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR MATURE STORM STRUCTURE. THE STORMS
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEP MOISTURE, WITH PWS AROUND 1.5
INCHES, SO THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM SOME RECENT NUCAPS SOUNDINGS OF A
LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WOULD LIKELY ASSIST MORE SO IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH OF HAIL.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WITH AN OVERALL
DYNAMIC WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
IF ANY OF THE STORMS CAN TAP INTO THESE WINDS AND TRANSFER THAT
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE WITH ANY DOWNDRAFTS/DOWNBURSTS, THE
THREAT FOR +50 KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE HEIGHTENED.
WE ARE ALSO WATCHING THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES AS WELL.
HRRR HODOGRAPHS IN WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF N-CENTRAL PA ARE
LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIALLY A STRONGLY SHEARED LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD ASSIST ANY STORM IN SPINNING UP A QUICK
LOW-END TORNADO. THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON (BEFORE 5 PM) AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND
INTO NE PA. RIGHT NOW, MOST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
BACKED ENOUGH, BUT IF THEY START TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY, THIS
WOULD INCREASE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 8 PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT ON SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK. THIS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AND
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME CONCERN FOR A SHORT WAVE BREAKING
OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH
WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE. THIS PATTERN REPEATS GOING INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK IN AND SEVERAL MORE
WAVES, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE, TRY TO RIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL BE A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TYPE PATTERN
LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING
COLD FRONT ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT
PASSES OVER A TERMINAL. BEHIND THE FRONT, MVFR TO FUEL ALT
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL CENTRAL NY TERMINALS
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ADDED MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
MAY LEAD TO FOG AT ELM AND AVP AS SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT FOR
PART OF THE NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE CALM. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENTS TO CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 12Z SUNDAY
THOUGH RME AND SYR WILL REMAIN UNDER LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25+ KTS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
CALMER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THEN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
5 TO 10 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJT
AVIATION...BTL
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