921
FXUS61 KBGM 070011
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
811 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE WILL BE PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED. BROKEN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS SUNDAY MORNING, WITH MORE
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS A
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NEAR THE AREA.
2) THE HEAT RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COMPACT, COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE BY JUST TO OUR EAST
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, SPREADING DOWN INTO THE
TWIN TIERS BY DAYBREAK. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING, THEN
GRADUALLY CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE COMPACT LOW
RACES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND SUNDAY
MORNING, MAINLY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY, BETWEEN 8-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. IT WILL CERTAINLY BE COOLER, AND MUCH
LESS HUMID, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE 70S ACROSS CENTRAL NY, WITH MID-70S TO MID-80S IN NE PA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT ON SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK. THIS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AND
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME CONCERN FOR A SHORT WAVE BREAKING
OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH
WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE. THIS PATTERN REPEATS GOING INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK IN AND SEVERAL MORE
WAVES, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE, TRY TO RIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL BE A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TYPE PATTERN
LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDED MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS MAY LEAD TO FOG AT ELM BETWEEN ABOUT
07-11Z EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT FOR PART
OF THE NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE CALM. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, ONLY
ADDED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR FOG HERE WITH THIS TAF UPDATE.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG FOR MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT OUR OTHER TERMINALS.
AN MVFR/MVFR FUEL ALT CLOUD DECK IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NY BETWEEN 04-09Z EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AT RME AND SYR; REACHING BGM, ITH AND ELM BY 09-12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE MVFR CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER UNTIL
AROUND 15-18Z AT ELM, BGM AND ITH, BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AND
LIFTING TO VFR. SYR AND RME WILL SEE THE MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER
LONGER, POSSIBLY THROUGH 21-24Z SUNDAY EVENING.
WIND WILL BE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT, LESS THAN 10 KTS. NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY, BETWEEN 6-12 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS EXPECTED AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJT/MJM
AVIATION...BTL/MJM
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