262
FXUS61 KBGM 070520
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
120 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT WAVE POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
2) A FEW SHOWERS TODAY THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT TODAY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVES WAY TO A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE MODELED TO BE ON A FAIRLY
SHARP INCREASE HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CURRENT
VALUES WOULD SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
GETTING INTO THE LOW 90'S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH MUGGY READINGS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE
WEEK.
OUR NBM GUIDANCE HAS DEMONSTRATED A NATIONWIDE WARM BIAS SO FAR
THIS SEASON AND SUSPECT THAT IS THE CASE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
AS WELL. RECENT NBM RUNS HAVE FEATURED HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 90'S FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH IS WARMER THAN THE WARMEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBER. THE NBM
VALUES WOULD PUSH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THE HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH DAY WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
AS WELL IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MODELED
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HEIGHTS RISE A BIT ON THURSDAY BUT THERE SHOULD
STILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. A MORE
ORGANIZED COLD FRONT THEN IS MODELED TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. SHEAR MAY END UP TOO MARGINAL FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY
WITH TYPICAL TIMING UNCERTAINITIES WITH THE VARIOUS FEATURES.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDED MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS MAY LEAD TO FOG AT ELM BETWEEN ABOUT
07-11Z EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT FOR PART
OF THE NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE CALM. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, ONLY
ADDED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR FOG HERE WITH THIS TAF UPDATE.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG FOR MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT OUR OTHER TERMINALS.
AN MVFR/MVFR FUEL ALT CLOUD DECK IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NY BETWEEN 04-09Z EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AT RME AND SYR; REACHING BGM, ITH AND ELM BY 09-12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE MVFR CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER UNTIL
AROUND 15-18Z AT ELM, BGM AND ITH, BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AND
LIFTING TO VFR. SYR AND RME WILL SEE THE MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER
LONGER, POSSIBLY THROUGH 21-24Z SUNDAY EVENING.
WIND WILL BE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT, LESS THAN 10 KTS. NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY, BETWEEN 6-12 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS EXPECTED AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...BTL/MJM
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