240
FXUS61 KBGM 070757
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
357 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A HEAT WAVE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
2) A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT TODAY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVES WAY TO A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE MODELED TO BE ON A FAIRLY
SHARP INCREASE HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CURRENT
VALUES WOULD SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY LOCATIONS
GETTING INTO THE LOW 90'S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH MUGGY READINGS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE
WEEK.
OUR NBM GUIDANCE HAS DEMONSTRATED A NATIONWIDE WARM BIAS SO FAR
THIS SEASON AND SUSPECT THAT IS THE CASE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
AS WELL. RECENT NBM RUNS HAVE FEATURED HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 90'S FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH IS WARMER THAN THE WARMEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBER. THE NBM
VALUES WOULD PUSH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THE HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH DAY WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
AS WELL IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MODELED
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HEIGHTS RISE A BIT ON THURSDAY BUT THERE SHOULD
STILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. A MORE
ORGANIZED COLD FRONT THEN IS MODELED TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. SHEAR MAY END UP TOO MARGINAL FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY
WITH TYPICAL TIMING UNCERTAINITIES WITH THE VARIOUS FEATURES.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT TO START THE TAF PERIOD
AS OF 06Z, THERE ARE A FEW EXCEPTIONS THAT RESULT IN A TRICKY
FORECAST PRIOR TO 12Z. FIRST, IFR CEILINGS HAVE UNEXPECTEDLY
DEVELOPED AT KAVP. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND FLUCTUATE BETWEEN BKN (IFR) AND SCT (VFR), AND
THEREFORE INCLUDED A TWO HOUR TEMPO FROM 06Z TO 08Z FOR IFR
CEILINGS THERE. THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING KELM, AS THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF POSSIBLE FOG
FORMATION THERE. CONTINUED THE TEMPO GROUP FOR 2SM BR FOR THERE,
BUT JUST ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF IT SLIGHTLY.
OTHERWISE, A MVFR/MVFR FUEL ALT CLOUD DECK IS FORECAST TO MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTH AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NY BY 09-12Z THIS
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST AT KSYR AND KRME
(LIKELY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON), BUT A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO VFR BY THE EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...BJG
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