815
FXUS61 KBGM 071723
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
123 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEAK,
LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
3. AFTER TODAY, THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY THOUGH SHOWERS
RETURN MIDWEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE CLOUD COVER
HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THESE AREAS, MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED
INSTABILITY, SO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST PA, THERE HAVE BEEN MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY IN AREAS WITH HIGH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS THEN LED TO
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MORE STABLE IS DROPPING IN, SO ADDITIONAL POP UP SHOWERS IN THESE
AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING. THAT
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
VALLEYS, THOUGH COULD CREEP UP SOME HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS AS
WELL. THESE CONDITIONS TYPICALLY LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, SO TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED DOWN SLIGHTLY BELOW NBM
GUIDANCE. TONIGHT'S LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP KICK
OFF A WARMING TREND THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MUCH OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH
THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW 90S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE THIS
WEEK. DEWPOINTS EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S BUT
LATE IN THE WEEK, INCREASE TO MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL A BIT MORE MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE. LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
60S AFTER TOMORROW NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, NBM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT WARM COMPARED TO THE
MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, SO TEMPERATURES
WERE BUMPED DOWN SLIGHTLY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EARLY IN THE
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON, SO
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT COULD BE LIMITED DUE TO MORNING
SHOWERS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDES A RIDGE THAT BUILDS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY, KICKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO BE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THIS FRONT OUT OF THE REGION
BY SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO START THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR CLOUDS LINGERING OVER RME/SYR/ITH SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AROUND 22-00Z, AS WELL AS THE CURRENT WIND GUSTS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS.
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FOR ELM AND ITH BETWEEN 08Z AND
12Z, AND A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED. ALTHOUGH IT'S POSSIBLE
AT BGM, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
18Z PACKAGE AND WILL BE RE-EVALUATED AT THE 00Z PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MWG
AVIATION...KL
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