152
FXUS61 KBGM 080510
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
110 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES LOWERED SLIGHTLY GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
ALSO, SOME CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEAK,
LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
2) AFTER TODAY, THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY THOUGH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WE START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY
BRINGING ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY TO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY SETTING UP A WARM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHICH SHOULD LAST FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. WHILE STARTING OFF IN THE UPPER 70'S AND LOW 80'S TODAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS TO REACH THE LOW 90'S ON
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MUGGIER AS WELL WITH
LOWS FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60'S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. OUR NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY HIGH
TEMPERATURE BIAS AND WAS BLENDED WITH CONSALL GUIDANCE TO MAKE
THE TEMPERATURES MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. SOME
UNCERTAINITY DOES EXIST AS WELL WITH REGARDS TO IF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT AFTER TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY WHICH
SHOULD LOWER THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED
TO WEDNESDAY. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE TIMING STILL INDICATES A COLD
FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WOULD
PROVIDE THE LIFT TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT. THIS FRONT MAY END UP DECAYING OVER OUR
REGION WHICH WOULD KEEP SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE BIGGEST THREAT
FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODELED PW VALUES FROM 1.5-2
INCHES. GETTING ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR CLOUDS LINGERING OVER RME/SYR/ITH/BGM SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AROUND 02-05Z THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON THIS
IMPROVEMENT AND TIMING.
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FOR ELM AND ITH BETWEEN ABOUT
08Z AND 12Z, AND A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED. ALTHOUGH IT'S
POSSIBLE AT BGM, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR THE THE 00Z PACKAGE, BUT DID SHOW SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG/MIST
AT BGM AROUND DAYBREAK.
ANY EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE AFTER 12-13Z MONDAY, RIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, UNDER 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, BETWEEN
4-8 KTS MOST OF THE TIME.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...KL/MJM
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