086
FXUS61 KBGM 081056
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
656 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES LOWERED SLIGHTLY GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
ALSO, SOME CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK,
LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
2) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND
LAST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WE START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY
BRINGING ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY TO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY SETTING UP A WARM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHICH SHOULD LAST FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. WHILE STARTING OFF IN THE UPPER 70'S AND LOW 80'S TODAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS TO REACH THE LOW 90'S ON
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MUGGIER AS WELL WITH
LOWS FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60'S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. OUR NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY HIGH
TEMPERATURE BIAS AND WAS BLENDED WITH CONSALL GUIDANCE TO MAKE
THE TEMPERATURES MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. SOME
UNCERTAINITY DOES EXIST AS WELL WITH REGARDS TO IF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT AFTER TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY WHICH
SHOULD LOWER THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED
TO WEDNESDAY. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE TIMING STILL INDICATES A COLD
FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WOULD
PROVIDE THE LIFT TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT. THIS FRONT MAY END UP DECAYING OVER OUR
REGION WHICH WOULD KEEP SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE BIGGEST THREAT
FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODELED PW VALUES FROM 1.5-2
INCHES. GETTING ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD (AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY).
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...BJG
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