379
FXUS61 KBGM 081735
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
135 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES LOWERED SLIGHTLY GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
ALSO, SOME CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK,
LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
2) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND
LAST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WE START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY
BRINGING ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY TO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY SETTING UP A WARM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHICH SHOULD LAST FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. WHILE STARTING OFF IN THE UPPER 70'S AND LOW 80'S TODAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS TO REACH THE LOW 90'S ON
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MUGGIER AS WELL WITH
LOWS FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60'S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. OUR NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY HIGH
TEMPERATURE BIAS AND WAS BLENDED WITH CONSALL GUIDANCE TO MAKE
THE TEMPERATURES MORE IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. SOME
UNCERTAINITY DOES EXIST AS WELL WITH REGARDS TO IF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT AFTER TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY WHICH
SHOULD LOWER THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED
TO WEDNESDAY. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE TIMING STILL INDICATES A COLD
FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WOULD
PROVIDE THE LIFT TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT. THIS FRONT MAY END UP DECAYING OVER OUR
REGION WHICH WOULD KEEP SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE BIGGEST THREAT
FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODELED PW VALUES FROM 1.5-2
INCHES. GETTING ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A PESKY CLOUD DECK REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEPA AND CNY
TODAY. MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS
PUSHED WEST, AND NOW IT IS TRAPPED UNDER THE AXIS OF A SURFACE
RIDGE SITTING OVER THE AREA. NOT A LOT OF STEERING CURRENTS ARE
PRESENT OVER THE AREA SO THE CLOUD DECK IS SLOWLY DRIFTING
NORTH WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOW PUSHING CEILINGS BACK TO VFR.
THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE VFR TONIGHT, BUT HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG TO
DEVELOP. ELM IS INTERESTING IN THAT THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
RIGHT NOW WERE NOT MODELED TO BE THERE AND SHOULD KEEP THE
VALLEY COOLER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REACH THE DEWPOINT MUCH EASIER THAN IF IT WAS
SUNNY AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS DRIED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IFR AND LOWER FOG TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM AT THIS TIME AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAINING ACTIVE, WHICH WOULD HELP MIX OUT ANY FOG THAT FORMS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF FOG THAT ROLL IN
AND OUT OF THE TERMINAL TONIGHT. GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT SET OF
TAFS SHOULD BE BETTER AS THE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE
INGESTED AND SHOULD PRODUCE INITIAL CONDITIONS CLOSER TO WHAT IS
BEING OBSERVE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BETTER HANDLE OF THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT CHANCES.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY EACH
AFTERNOON.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...JTC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page