941
FXUS61 KBGM 081751
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
151 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES WERE REDUCED THE REST FOR THE REST OF TODAY WHERE SKIES
REMAIN CLOUDY. OTHERWISE, THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK,
LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2) RAIN WILL RETURN MIDWEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MARINE MOISTURE HAS KEPT CLOUDS AROUND FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST
OF I-81. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED HEATING AS MUCH OF THE AREA
UNDER THE CLOUDS REMAIN IN 60S THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE THERE HAS BEEN
SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE 70S. DUE TO THIS,
TEMPERATURES WERE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS NOW IN THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST,
THOUGH THE FINGER LAKES WILL HOLD ONTO 60S.
AFTER TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL OFTEN BE ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTH TO
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WARM AIR IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY DUE TO SHOWERS BUT THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT
BRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF RELIEF FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE A
FACTOR IN HOW WARM THE REGION GETS. A LATER TIMING WOULD FAVOR HIGHS
NEAR OR ABOVE 90 LIKE WHAT THE NBM HAS. IN THIS SITUATION,
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS HEAT INDEX VALUES WOULD EXCEED
CRITERIA. HOWEVER, AN EARLIER TIMING IN THE DAY WOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER. AS WITH PAST UPDATES, NBM GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN RUNNING WARMER THAN MOST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, SO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED BELOW THE NBM FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE EAST LATE TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVES IN, GUIDANCE
AGREE THAT THE DRY CONDITIONS COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE 1.75 TO 2 INCHES, SO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH ON THURSDAY. PWATS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE NEAR 2 INCHES. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE. THE NAM IS IN ITS OWN ZIP CODE WITH
4000+ J/KG OF MLCAPE. COMPARE THAT TO THE GFS THAT MAXES OUT AT 1500
J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AS WELL. WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS IN
THE MORNING, THE GFS IS LIKELY MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT THE
CONDITIONS COULD POTENTIALLY BE. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND BRING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE 1, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. A LATER TIMING WOULD
FAVOR MORE DAYTIME HEATING AND A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WPC HAS THE REGION OUTLOOKED
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY. WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAIN WITH THE PRIOR SYSTEMS, MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH FOR
TOTAL PRECIPITATION LEADING UP TO FRIDAY. PWATS ARE ALSO NOT AS HIGH
WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR ANY HYDRO ISSUES AT THIS TIME. THE WEEKEND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE. A
WEAKER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A PESKY CLOUD DECK REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEPA AND CNY
TODAY. MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS
PUSHED WEST, AND NOW IT IS TRAPPED UNDER THE AXIS OF A SURFACE
RIDGE SITTING OVER THE AREA. NOT A LOT OF STEERING CURRENTS ARE
PRESENT OVER THE AREA SO THE CLOUD DECK IS SLOWLY DRIFTING
NORTH WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOW PUSHING CEILINGS BACK TO VFR.
THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE VFR TONIGHT, BUT HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG TO
DEVELOP. ELM IS INTERESTING IN THAT THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
RIGHT NOW WERE NOT MODELED TO BE THERE AND SHOULD KEEP THE
VALLEY COOLER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REACH THE DEWPOINT MUCH EASIER THAN IF IT WAS
SUNNY AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS DRIED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IFR AND LOWER FOG TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM AT THIS TIME AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAINING ACTIVE, WHICH WOULD HELP MIX OUT ANY FOG THAT FORMS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF FOG THAT ROLL IN
AND OUT OF THE TERMINAL TONIGHT. GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT SET OF
TAFS SHOULD BE BETTER AS THE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE
INGESTED AND SHOULD PRODUCE INITIAL CONDITIONS CLOSER TO WHAT IS
BEING OBSERVE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BETTER HANDLE OF THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT CHANCES.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY EACH
AFTERNOON.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...JTC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page