173
FXUS61 KBGM 082331
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
731 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING,
AS IT REMAINS WELL ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK,
LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2) RAIN WILL RETURN MIDWEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MARINE MOISTURE HAS KEPT CLOUDS AROUND FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST
OF I-81. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED HEATING AS MUCH OF THE AREA
UNDER THE CLOUDS REMAIN IN 60S THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE THERE HAS BEEN
SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE 70S. DUE TO THIS,
TEMPERATURES WERE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS NOW IN THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST,
THOUGH THE FINGER LAKES WILL HOLD ONTO 60S.
AFTER TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL OFTEN BE ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTH TO
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WARM AIR IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY DUE TO SHOWERS BUT THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT
BRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF RELIEF FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE A
FACTOR IN HOW WARM THE REGION GETS. A LATER TIMING WOULD FAVOR HIGHS
NEAR OR ABOVE 90 LIKE WHAT THE NBM HAS. IN THIS SITUATION,
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS HEAT INDEX VALUES WOULD EXCEED
CRITERIA. HOWEVER, AN EARLIER TIMING IN THE DAY WOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER. AS WITH PAST UPDATES, NBM GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN RUNNING WARMER THAN MOST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, SO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED BELOW THE NBM FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE EAST LATE TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVES IN, GUIDANCE
AGREE THAT THE DRY CONDITIONS COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE 1.75 TO 2 INCHES, SO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH ON THURSDAY. PWATS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE NEAR 2 INCHES. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE. THE NAM IS IN ITS OWN ZIP CODE WITH
4000+ J/KG OF MLCAPE. COMPARE THAT TO THE GFS THAT MAXES OUT AT 1500
J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AS WELL. WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS IN
THE MORNING, THE GFS IS LIKELY MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT THE
CONDITIONS COULD POTENTIALLY BE. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND BRING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE 1, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. A LATER TIMING WOULD
FAVOR MORE DAYTIME HEATING AND A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WPC HAS THE REGION OUTLOOKED
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY. WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAIN WITH THE PRIOR SYSTEMS, MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH FOR
TOTAL PRECIPITATION LEADING UP TO FRIDAY. PWATS ARE ALSO NOT AS HIGH
WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. GIVEN THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR ANY HYDRO ISSUES AT THIS TIME. THE WEEKEND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE. A
WEAKER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FEW TO SCT MID LEVEL STRATO-CU CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ALONG A
LINE FROM NEAR BGM SOUTH TO AVP. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS (AROUND SUNSET).
MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE VFR TONIGHT, BUT HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG
TO DEVELOP. ELM'S CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 57F, WITH A
PREDICTED OVERNIGHT LOW RIGHT AROUND 55-57F EXPECTED. SKIES ARE
CLEAR NOW, AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADITIONAL COOLING. FOR
THIS 00Z TAF SET, A TEMPO WAS INCLUDED FOR MVFR FOG AT ELM FROM
08-11Z EARLY TUESDAY MORNING; CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ADVERTISE IFR RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME, AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS LOWERED THE FOG POTENTIAL.
AFTER ANY PATCHY MORNING CLOUDS OR FOG DISSIPATES, IT WILL BE
VFR AREAWIDE WITH JUST A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS (BETWEEN 150-250
FT AGL) EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY SOUTHWEST UP TO
10 KTS, ESPECIALLY AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY EVENING...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY EACH
AFTERNOON.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...JTC/MJM
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