531
FXUS61 KBGM 090423
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1223 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING,
AS IT REMAINS WELL ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK,
LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2) RAIN WILL RETURN MIDWEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. AS A RESULT, BOTH TEMPERATURES
AND THE AMOUNT OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELED
BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES HAVE HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 80'S FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME READINGS INTO THE 90'S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE MOISTURE INCREASE AS WELL, HEAT INDEX
VALUES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 95 IN A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS
WITH SOME VALUES OF 95-100 ON FRIDAY. THIS TAKES INTO THE
ACCOUNT THE WARM BIAS OF THE NBM WHICH CONTINUES TO OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL OFF FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON SATURDAY WITH A POTENTIAL SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY TREND TEMPERATURES
COOLER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOK PRESENT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS A BIT LIMITED IN THIS TIMEFRAME FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, PW VALUES OF 1.5-2
INCHES WILL POSSIBLY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A MCS
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SOME
MODELING HAS IT DECAYING BEFORE IT REACHES OUR REGION. HOWEVER,
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD INCREASE QUITE A BIT DUE TO A
POSSIBLE EML. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS LOOKING MORE MODEST AS WELL.
THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY CAPPED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH 700 MB MODELED TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 11C.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE REGION MAINLY HOT AND DRY AFTER ANY
POTENTIAL MCS OR IT'S LEFTOVERS MOVE THROUGH.
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT HAS TRENDED A BIT STRONGER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE TODAY. ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. EVEN THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS SHOWS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SURFACE CAPE. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN, IF IT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT THAT WOULD LOWER ANY
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FEW TO SCT MID LEVEL STRATO-CU CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ALONG A
LINE FROM NEAR BGM SOUTH TO AVP. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS (AROUND SUNSET).
MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE VFR TONIGHT, BUT HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG
TO DEVELOP. ELM'S CROSS OVER TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 57F, WITH A
PREDICTED OVERNIGHT LOW RIGHT AROUND 55-57F EXPECTED. SKIES ARE
CLEAR NOW, AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADITIONAL COOLING. FOR
THIS 00Z TAF SET, A TEMPO WAS INCLUDED FOR MVFR FOG AT ELM FROM
08-11Z EARLY TUESDAY MORNING; CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ADVERTISE IFR RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME, AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS LOWERED THE FOG POTENTIAL.
AFTER ANY PATCHY MORNING CLOUDS OR FOG DISSIPATES, IT WILL BE
VFR AREAWIDE WITH JUST A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS (BETWEEN 150-250
FT AGL) EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY SOUTHWEST UP TO
10 KTS, ESPECIALLY AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY EVENING...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY EACH
AFTERNOON.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...JTC/MJM
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