084
FXUS61 KBGM 091949
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
349 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN
EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TOO
VARIED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO UPTICK AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES,
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
2) MULTIPLE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT NICE WEATHER TO THE AREA
THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SLID EAST OF THE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED SW
FLOW TO RETURN THAT WILL PUMP WARM, MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AS THE FIRST
SIGNS OF THE SOUTHERN AIRMASS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S.
WE WILL START TO FEEL THE EFFECT TO OF THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS ON
WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S BY LATE MORNING.
MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF I-81 WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S, INCREASING TO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ON FRIDAY.
THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE TWIN
TIERS, BUT WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S, HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ON THURSDAY
AND MID TO UPPER 90S ON FRIDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND ITS TIMING WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE INCOMING TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND FLATTENING OUT,
CNY AND NEPA WILL RETURN TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
A AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS OH INTO WNY THIS
AFTERNOON, PUSHING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA AND DEVELOPING
SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH THAT IS SLIDING EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND INTO
ONEIDA COUNTY STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE LACKING, BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS WILL BE AROUND 1.5IN.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE INCREASED CAPE AS THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE
FULLY PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER
FOR THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH
WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C TO KICK OFF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME HAVING THE POTENTIAL
TO BE SEVERE. CURRENTLY, A LACK OF SHEAR IS HOLDING BACK THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS, BUT WITH PWATS IN
THE 1.75-2IN RANGE, RAIN DRIVEN DOWNDRAFTS COULD CAUSE DAMAGING
WINDS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION SHOULD KEEP HAIL SIZES ON THE LOW END. AREAS HIT BY
SLOW MOVING STORMS OR HIT BY MULTIPLE STORMS COULD SEE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A MCS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING VARIED PATHS OF THE MCS, WITH SOME EVEN HAVING IT
DISSIPATE BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE AREA AS IT HITS HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS VARIANCE IS PRETTY NORMAL FOR THIS SET UP AS THE
POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL GUIDE THE PATH OF THE
SYSTEM. WE ARE TRACKING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER (EML) MOVING OVERHEAD DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS, KEEPING CAPE
HIGH AND SHEAR MODEST. IF THE ELM CAN BE REALIZED, AN MCS SHOULD
DEVELOP AND RIDE THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. TIMING AND
LOCATION STILL IS UNCERTAIN.
WITH THE POSSIBLE RAIN FROM THE MCS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
EITHER WED NIGHT OR THURS MORNING, THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODELED TO
BECOME CAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON,
AND IF AN AREA IS NOT IMPACTED BY MORNING RAIN AND CAN SEE SOME
CLEARING, AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFT FROM THE FRONT COMBINED WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND MODEST 0-6KM SHOULD KICK OFF
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
DRIVER FOR FRIDAY. MANY MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW AN AFTERNOON
PASSAGE, BUT GIVEN THERE IS A SHARP, NARROW RIDGE PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE TIMING COULD CHANGE
BASED ON INTERACTION WITH THE RIDGE. PWATS WILL ALSO BE HIGH SO
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE AS WE WILL SIT
BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A TROUGH TO THE NORTH. ACTIVE
WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WE
WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL THROW
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z TONIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NY BUT
THOSE SHOULD DISSIPATE PRIOR TO REACHING FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
IMPACT ANY AIRPORT. AFTER 6Z, A WARM FRONT LIFTS IN WITH CIGS
FALLING TO MVFR. SOME MODELS TRY AND DROP CIGS TO NEAR IFR BUT
GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR AND INCREASING WINDS LATER TONIGHT,
ODDS FAVOR MVFR AT WORST. RAIN SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS START TO FORM CLOSE TO 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO WITH THE MORNING CLOUDS IS THEY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
18Z.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY EACH
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY, POTENTIAL FOG AT ELM OVERNIGHT.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...AJG
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