121
FXUS61 KBGM 101041
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD COOL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO UPTICK AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES,
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
2) MULTIPLE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S, BUT WITH THE ADDED HUMIDITY TODAY, IT WILL
START TO FEEL MUCH STICKIER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE BEST
PLACE TO BE TODAY WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF I-81,
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S.
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INCREASE TO THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S ON FRIDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE TWIN TIERS, BUT WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, HEAT INDICES COULD RISE INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S ON THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 90S ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOADS OF INSTABILITY, WITH
CAPE EXCEEDING OF 3000 J/KG AND NOW MODELS ARE INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK PERTURBATION ON THURSDAY THAT WOULD KICK
OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND THROW A WRENCH IN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. ON FRIDAY, THE KICKER FOR STORMS IS MORE
PRONOUNCED, AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
MID AFTERNOON. IF THIS TIMING IS CORRECT, THEN WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD AGAIN HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
ONE OTHER THING THAT HAS NOT BEEN MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
IS LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THURSDAY MORNING. AN EML PLUME
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY, AND DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING, THUNDERSTORMS AND
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING COULD HINDER HEATING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, AND ONCE THE SUN IS OUT AGAIN, INSTABILITY WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE AND MORE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AND FLATTENING OUT,
CNY AND NEPA WILL RETURN TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
TODAY WILL SEE INCREASED SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM TO
KICK OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. CURRENTLY, A LACK OF SHEAR IS
HOLDING BACK THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS,
BUT WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75-2IN RANGE, RAIN DRIVEN DOWNDRAFTS
COULD CAUSE DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH
THE LACK OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION SHOULD KEEP HAIL SIZES ON THE
LOW END. AREAS HIT BY SLOW MOVING STORMS OR HIT BY MULTIPLE
STORMS COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
TONIGHT, OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EML PLUME MOVING INTO
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ELEVATED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO OVER
2500 J/KG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7C/KM. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND PUSH
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WITH THE EML IN PLACE, WE CAN'T
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION ON THURSDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH
OUT OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. THERE SHOULD THEN BE PLENTY OF
TIME FOR INSTABILITY TO BUILD INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO THE AREA BY
MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE
AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
FINALLY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT FROM THE FRONT COMBINED WITH
CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND MODEST 0-6KM
SHEAR, COULD POTENTIALLY KICK OFF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER DRIVER. MANY MODELS ARE INDICATING AN AFTERNOON
PASSAGE, BUT GIVEN THERE IS A SHARP, NARROW RIDGE PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE TIMING COULD CHANGE
BASED ON INTERACTION WITH THE RIDGE. PWATS WILL ALSO BE HIGH SO
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE,
BUT LESS LIKELY THAN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE AS WE WILL SIT
BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A TROUGH TO THE NORTH. ACTIVE
WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WE
WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL THROW
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST SITES THIS MORNING, WITH
CEILINGS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AROUND 19Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH ROUGHLY 23Z. TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL TERMINALS. SOUTH
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY EACH
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY, POTENTIAL FOG AT ELM OVERNIGHT.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...ES
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