254
FXUS61 KBGM 192319
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
719 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE
WITH THE THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
2) MILD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS BEFORE A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT, AND A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN LATER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO ROTATE EAST/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NOVA
SCOTIA TODAY. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS LOW A COOLER AIR MASS
ALOFT IS MOVING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR
NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION, THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
SWEEPING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL HELP PROVIDE THE LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND WORK IN COLLABORATION WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO INITIATE AN AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN NY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, BUT WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS
SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR AN INVERTED-V THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILE
WHICH IF THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO SUPPORT HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION, COULD TRIGGER A FEW DRY MICROBURSTS. THIS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS ON THE LOW SIDE
GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST ONE FAIRLY ROBUST INVERSION
LAYER BETWEEN 18-25 KFT. THIS INVERSION LAYER WILL KEEP ANY
CONVECTION RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND LIMIT THE DEPTH MAGNITUDE OF
ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES CROP UP WILL DISSIPATE AROUND OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLLAPSES AND
THE STABLE LAYER DOMINATES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST SATURDAY ALONG WITH
THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN
THE AFTERNOON THAT MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
WEAK/SHALLOW STORMS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN NY AND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN PA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NEED TO OVERCOME
ANOTHER WEAK INVERSION ALOFT IN ORDER TO GENERATE UPDRAFTS
ABOVE 10-15 KFT, SO THIS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY, THE PATTERN BECOMES FLATTER AND MORE WESTERLY AND A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AS
HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON
SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...CLOSE TO
80 IN NE PA, AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S CLOSE
TO 60...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY. COULD SEE A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WITH NO PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM, SUCH AS A
UPPER TROUGH/SHORT-WAVE OR COLD FRONT AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION IS FAIRLY LOW.
THE ATTENTION ON MONDAY TURNS TO A DE-AMPLIFIED UPPER WAVE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND
SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BROAD AREA OF RAIN THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE REGION
WILL SEE AROUND 1" OF RAIN AND SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE
UP TO 2" OVER THIS 24 HR PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN
OUTLIER WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, SO WE
CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE CONSENSUS NORTHERLY TRACK OF
THE WARM FRONT/SFC LOW.
AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO/FLOODING ISSUES
WITH THIS RAIN, BUT WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW IT EVOLVES.
THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
RAINFALL RATES, SO SHORT-FUSED HYDRO CONCERNS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS ACTIVE, WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION, BUT RELATIVELY UN-IMPACTFUL WITH GENERALLY A
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST UNDER A MOSTLY
MILD THERMAL PATTERN AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME EXCEPTIONS.
ONGOING SHOWERS STILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF IMPACTING ELM, BGM,
AND AVP, WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. SINCE COVERAGE
HAS BECOME MORE ISOLATED, THERE IS NO MENTION OF RAIN AT THESE
LOCATIONS. MVFR TO FUEL ALT CEILINGS MOVE INTO RME AND SYR
TONIGHT. BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY, BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR.
GUSTY WINDS REMAIN PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THOUGH GUSTS OF 15+ KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. TOMORROW, WINDS GUST TO AT LEAST 20 KTS ONCE
AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WINDS BECOMING CALM NEAR THE END OR
AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD. WHILE IT WILL BE BORDERLINE GIVEN THE
STRONGER SURFACE WINDS PRESENT, LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS ADDED
TO THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS IN THE EVENT THAT THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHTLY CALMER WINDS AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR, ISOLATED SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
RAIN, RESTRICTIONS, AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION WITH SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJT
AVIATION...BTL
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