833
FXUS61 KBGM 201715
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
115 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF
LOW POPS ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
2) THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS GENERALLY CYCLONIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA WHILE THE SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE ALLOWED TO WARM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO KICK OFF DURING THE 12-8 PM TIME FRAME
TODAY AND SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT FORCING TODAY AND RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD, SUSTAINED THREAT
OF SHOWERS IS LOW. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL THIS VERY
DRY AIR MASS, BUT DO HINT AT A ROUGHLY 15 KFT LAYER OF
SATURATION AND A VERY HIGH CLOUD BASE WITH AN INVERTED-V
SOUNDING PROFILE. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME VIRGA ACROSS THE
REGION. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS OR DRY
DOWNDRAFTS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE, BUT THE THREAT IS NOT ZERO.
ANY SHALLOW CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING TO KEEP THE UPDRAFTS
GOING.
THE ADDITION OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING AROUND 100-200 J/KG OF ML CAPE BY THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH AN OVERLAPPING CORRIDOR OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40
KT EXTENDING NW TO SE THROUGH CENTRAL NY. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...COMBINED WITH THE SHORT WAVE FOR FORCED ASCENT,
BELIEVE THERE COULD BE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAIN
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND
COMBINE WITH A GRADUALLY WEAKENING SURFACE LOW AND VERY MOIST
AIR MASS TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF RAIN THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AS STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TAPS INTO A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF VERY EFFICIENT RAIN. MODEL PWS
ARE GENERALLY AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES, WITH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES
INTO THE POCONOS. THESE TYPES OF VALUES ARE FALLING WITHIN THE
75TH TO 90TH PCTLE FOR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, WHICH WILL
PROVIDE AN ANSWER TO HOW UNSTABLE THE AREA MAY GET AND HOW MUCH
MOISTURE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO. THE LATEST
NAM GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WHICH WILL
ALLOW MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR TO BE DRAWN NORTH ACROSS NE PA AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL NY. THIS COULD LEAD TO PUSHING MORE OF THE
STABLE RAINFALL TO THE NORTH, AND MORE CONVECTIVE-TYPE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO MORNING RAIN WITH A BRIEF BREAK
AND SOME CLEARING, THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOVING SW TO NE WITH THE
LOW TRACK.
THE POTENTIAL ADDITION OF INSTABILITY TO THE ENVIRONMENT MAY
ALSO POINT TOWARD AN INCREASED THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS WOULD MAINLY IMPACT THE
FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS...STEEP TERRAIN AND URBAN REGIONS
MOSTLY. A BROAD AREA OF 1 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION IS
LIKELY, WITH AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND POTENTIALLY
CLOSER TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BORDER.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SETS IN TUE AND WED WITH AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY TOO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN TURNS ACTIVE
LATER IN THE WEEK AS WELL WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR BOTH
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
GUSTY WINDS FINALLY BECOME CALM TONIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY PICK
UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z, THOUGH ANY GUSTS SHOULD STAY
BELOW 15 KTS.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
RAIN, RESTRICTIONS, AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION WITH SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJT
AVIATION...BTL
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