543
FXUS61 KBGM 210542
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY GIVEN CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE EXPANDED FOR
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
2) MONDAY IS LOOKING COOL WITH RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL, WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS RETURN FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH DAY TIME HEATING
LEADING TO SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND THE CAMS, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED POP UP CONVECTION WILL BE EARLIER IN THE DAY. RIDGING
BUILDING IN WILL HELP DEVELOP A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT WORKS
ITS WAY DOWN FROM ABOUT 400 MB TO CLOSER TO 700 MB IN THE
EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SO
THE LATER IN THE DAY, THE SHORTER THE STORMS WITH LESS CAPE TO
WORK WITH. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE REMOVED AFTER ABOUT 5
PM AS BY THEN, THE DEPTH OF THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COUPLED WITH THE SHORTER STORMS MEANS MOST PRECIPITATION WILL
DRY BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN MONDAY IS DEVELOPING ON
THE NORTH END OF A SURFACE LOW THAT IS DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH A
LARGE MCS, BECOMING AN MCV IN KANSAS. THE EVOLUTION OF THE MCV
SO FAR HAS BEEN TOWARDS MUCH DEEPER CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS
RATHER THAN NORTH KS INTO NE. THE MCV CIRCULATION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL KS WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN MANY OF THE
0Z CAMS HAD IT. THE HRRR SO FAR IS HANDLING IT THE BEST THOUGH
STILL NOT VERY REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT IS GOING ON. THE 6Z CAMS
SHOULD HANDLE IT BETTER BUT MORE LIKELY THE 12Z CAMS TOMORROW
WILL INITIALIZE WELL ONCE THE MCV IS FULLY DEVELOPED. WITH THE
SOUTH TREND IN THE MCV, I WOULD EXPECT A SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN THE
PRECIPITATION AS WELL ONCE THE MODELS INITIALIZE BETTER. RIGHT
NOW, WENT WITH NBM POPS AS I THINK THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
STILL SEE ON AND OFF RAIN MONDAY, I DONT THINK THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS THEY WERE LOOKING. STORM TOTAL QPF
WAS REDUCED BY ABOUT HALF AN INCH REGION WIDE SO AN INCH PLUS OF
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA IS LESS LIKELY THOUGH SOME WILL SEE
AN INCH OR MORE. CATSKILLS AND POCONOS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
HIGHER QPF. RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS SYSTEM DONT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE EITHER WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN PREVENTING DEEPER
CONVECTION FROM BEING AS WIDESPREAD. DRIER SOILS AND LOWER
RIVERS WILL LIKELY HANDLE THE RAIN WELL WITH A LOW RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING.
TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WE ENTER BACK INTO A
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND LOTS OF DAY
TIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. IF
WE DO END UP WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
AREA, ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM EVAPORATION WILL SUPPORT MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF WE END UP LARGELY
BEING MISSED, THEN WE MAY BE FAIRLY DRY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE
STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND UNCERTAINTY WITH RAIN
MONDAY, CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE KEPT BELOW 15%.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS
AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NEPA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
RAIN, RESTRICTIONS, AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION WITH SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG/BJT
AVIATION...JTC
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