079
FXUS61 KBGM 211818
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
218 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR MONDAY WERE LOWERED A BIT, THOUGH IT
WILL STILL BE WET DAY. SEVERE RISK MONDAY, ALBEIT RATHER LIMITED,
HAS ALSO EDGED A BIT FARTHER NORTH TO INCLUDE MORE OF NORTHEAST
PA AND CATSKILLS COUNTIES OF NY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
2) A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE MONDAY COOLER AND WET.
THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAIN, LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE CATSKILLS
AND EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK.
3) OUR NEXT MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AS
MULTIPLE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TO YIELD OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ISOLATED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POPPED UP DURING MIDDAY, THOUGH WILL ALSO QUICKLY FALL APART IN
LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
AN ELONGATED WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ALOFT, ALONG WITH DIURNAL
HEATING, RESULTED IN THE EXPECTED FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE IS VERY
LITTLE FORCING AS RIDGING IS WORKING INTO THE REGION, AND MIXED-
LAYER CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY IS TOPPING OUT ONLY
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 500 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
UNDER AN INCH, REFLECTIVE OF THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE COLUMN WHICH IS IMMEDIATELY ENTRAINING INTO ANY
CONVECTIVE COLUMNS. SHEAR IS ALSO WEAK. THUS OTHER THAN BRIEF
STRONGER GUSTS DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH PULSES AS THEY MIX DOWN, AND
SPOTTY LIGHTNING, LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED FROM THESE
CELLS. THEY WILL SUCCUMB TO THE DRY AIR AND LOSS OF HEATING IN
LATE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
RAIN MOVES IN QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
OUR REGION GENERALLY BEING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK, WHICH ALSO MAKES SENSE WITH EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION WELL
UPSTREAM IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST. THIS SUPPORTS THE
CONTINUED LOWERING OF OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS, AS OUR ACTIVITY WILL
BE ELEVATED AND MAINLY STRATIFORM. AVERAGE FORECAST TOTALS
RANGE FROM ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH-
AND-A-QUARTER SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL HAVE NO
PROBLEM HANDLING THIS RAIN, BUT UNDER EMBEDDED THUNDER/HEAVIER
SHOWER CELLS IN AFTERNOON-EVENING, RAINFALL RATES COULD STILL
LEAD TO LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN POORER DRAINAGE
URBAN AREAS FROM NORTHEAST PA INTO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
CATSKILLS NY; SMALLER CREEKS AND ROCKY STEEPER-TERRAIN AREAS
WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A STILL A CHANCE THAT THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRIEFLY SNEAK INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS AREA,
AND THUS EFFECTIVELY A SHALLOW WARM FRONTAL ZONE IN NORTHEAST
PA-CATSKILLS NY UNTIL THE LOW PASSES. A RIBBON OF ELEVATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SNEAK INTO THAT REGION VIA A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET, ALONG WITH SOME SHEAR. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THUS PULLED THE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK UP A
BIT MORE TO INCLUDE MOST OF NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILLS
COUNTIES, AS THERE COULD BE ISOLATED GUSTY STORMS. THE LIMITED
PROBABILITIES FOR ANY ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE FOCUSED
FARTHER SOUTHEAST WHERE STORMS WILL TEND TO BE MORE SURFACE-
BASED, THOUGH IT IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER BENIGN WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A WETTER
PERIOD IS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL BE WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN
EVOLVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHICH WILL SEND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, YET MODELS SUGGEST THAT INDIVIDUAL WAVES WILL ALSO BE
ON THE WEAK SIDE.
WE CAN ANTICIPATE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS HAS ONLY A
10-30 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN TOTAL IN
48 HOURS, SO WE ARE NOT TOO CONCERNED FOR AN IMPACTFUL AMOUNT
OF RAIN. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE ALSO RATHER LIMITED; ONLY MODEST
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND A LITTLE BIT OF SHEAR IN THE 3-6 KM
LAYER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS IT GETS CLOSER, BUT
FOR NOW POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE LOW FOR EITHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OR EXCESSIVE RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR MONDAY MORNING AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE
REGION. GUIDANCE QUICKLY TAKES CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR AT BGM, ELM,
AND ITH. IF CEILINGS DO NOT BRING IFR CONDITIONS, THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE THAT MODERATE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
IFR. AT SYR, RME, AND AVP, GUIDANCE FAVORS HANGING ONTO MVFR
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. THEN
WINDS BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN,
WINDS THEN BECOME EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND
5 KTS.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS DUE TO RAIN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...BTL
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