587
FXUS61 KBGM 220550
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
150 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL WAS KEPT ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
THOUGH A HEAVIER STRIP WAS ADDED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO
CNY. SEVERE RISK REMAINS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE WYOMING VALLEY BUT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT CAN GET.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH PA TODAY WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN AN
HALF INCH AND AN INCH, WITH ISOLATED AREAS SEEING UP TO 1.5
INCHES.
2) DRY, NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND A CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG IN DEEPER VALLEYS.
3) PATTERN TURNS MORE UNSETTLED AND WARMER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE MCV THAT FORMED YESTERDAY HAS BECOME A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH PA TODAY. LOOKING AT THETA E
FIELDS, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CNY TODAY AT 850 MB WITH
FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDING MOISTURE INTO IT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WIDE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE DAY BASICALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA AND NORTHWARD
THROUGH CNY. FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY AND THE POCONOS, RAINFALL IS
LOOKING MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. AS OF NOW LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CAMS, THE
WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE DOES NOT QUITE LIFT INTO SOUTHERN
NEPA. THIS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE POTENTIAL SEVERE SURFACE BASED
STORMS WHICH WOULD BRING A WIND AND POTENTIALLY A TORNADO
THREAT. TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT IS
TRICKY TO NAIL DOWN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT IN A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKE THIS SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF TIME.
IF THE FRONT DOES LIFT NORTH ENOUGH INTO NEPA, MLCAPE COULD
APPROACH 700 TO 1000 J/KG WITH 35 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR, WITH
LOOPING HODOGRAPHS, WHERE FORECAST STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
RIGHT MOVING STORMS COULD APPROACH 500 (OR MORE BUT IF THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH, THE SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS BACKED)
WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS AREA. A BIG CONCERN IN THIS SET UP
IS STORMS THAT ARE ON THE WARM SIDE, AND JUST CROSS INTO THE
COOLER SIDE WHERE THERE IS HIGHER HELICITY AND QUICKLY SPIN UP A
TORNADO BEFORE IT GETS TOO FAR INTO THE STABLE AIR MASS. HAIL
DOES NOT LOOK TOO LIKELY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT TOO
TERRIBLY STEEP, BUT THERE IS STRONG WINDS NEAR THE EL THAT COULD
HELP STRENGTHEN UPDRAFTS IF THEY CAN GET DEEP ENOUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONCE THE LOW IS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW BRINGS IN DRY AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DAY TIME WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH DRY AIR MIXING ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE LOWERING
HUMIDITY THROUGH PEAK HEATING. AT NIGHT, WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN,
GREATER EVAPORATION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HELP
INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENOUGH FOR SOME VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH A WESTERLY TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WHILE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS FAR OUT, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE WAVES LATE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND TO MOVE THROUGH THAT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BERMUDA HIGH ALSO IS MEANDERING BACK
WEST, TOWARDS BERMUDA, WHICH WILL HELP WITH ADVECTING IN WARMER
AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS OPEN UP THE REGION TO BETTER MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF AND ATLANTIC. THERE IS LOOKING TO BE AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AS WELL, WITH THE 500 MB WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING BETWEEN 35 AND 60 KNOTS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SO THAT
WILL SUPPLY SOME SHEAR WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGES.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT
START POPPING UP UNTIL MID-MORNING, WITH MVFR VIS AND CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AS RAIN CONTINUES TO BE STEADY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A
PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN MOVING IN DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
MID AFTERNOON HOURS, WHERE IFR RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR AT
AVP/BGM/ITH/ELM. MOST GUIDANCE WANTS TO CRASH CEILINGS TO IFR
AND LOWER BY LATE MORNING, BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM NEAR THE CURRENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE PREVAILING IFR
RESTRICTIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR BGM/ELM/ITH. IFR
SHOULD REMAIN THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SYR AND RME SHOULD MISS MOST OF THE IFR, BUT CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BY THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY NIGHT...IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS CENTER OF LOW MOVES
OVER THE REGION.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...JTC
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