298
FXUS61 KBGM 221728
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
128 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANCES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WRAPPING UP BY THE
EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA, WRAPPING UP COMPLETELY BY THE EVENING HOURS. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN AN HALF INCH AND AN INCH, WITH ISOLATED
AREAS A LITTLE ABOVE AN INCH. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.
2) DRY, NORTHERLY FLOW TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND A CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG IN DEEPER VALLEYS.
THE PATTERN TURNS MORE UNSETTLED AND WARMER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER PA, BRINGING
ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. SO FAR, AROUND A
HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN
MOST AREAS, AND AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WE'RE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE THE BACK EDGE OF REFLECTIVITY ON
RADAR ON THE VERY WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA, AND THIS CLEARING
EDGE WILL MOVE WEST-TO-EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IN NE PA, THERE'S A BUBBLE OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING, AND TIED IN WITH SOME MODERATE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES, AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. IF THE WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T FULLY LIFT THROUGH NE
PA, THIS COULD HELP MITIGATE ANY STORM FROM BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE. IF IT DOES FULLY LIFT, INSTABILITY WOULD INCREASE, AS
WELL AS THE SEVERE STORM THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONCE THE LOW IS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE LOW BRINGS IN DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY. DAY TIME WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH DRY AIR
MIXING ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE LOWERING HUMIDITY THROUGH PEAK
HEATING. AT NIGHT, AFTER ALL THE RAIN, GREATER EVAPORATION IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HELP INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENOUGH FOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WHILE TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS FAR OUT, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE WAVES LATE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND TO MOVE THROUGH THAT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BERMUDA HIGH ALSO IS MEANDERING BACK WEST, TOWARDS
BERMUDA, WHICH WILL HELP WITH ADVECTING IN WARMER AIR ALOFT AS
WELL AS OPEN UP THE REGION TO BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC. THERE IS LOOKING TO BE AT LEAST SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM RISK AS WELL, WITH THE 500 MB WIND SPEEDS REMAINING
BETWEEN 35 AND 60 KNOTS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY SO THAT WILL
SUPPLY SOME SHEAR WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGES.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNDER HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COMES TO AN END
LATER THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY LIFTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
FOR A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD RETURN BY LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA,
SWITCHING THE WIND DIRECTION TO MORE NWERLY. THESE CEILINGS
SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...JTC/MPK
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