304
FXUS61 KBGM 231722
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
122 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES MADE FROM THE NBM OR PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET WEATHER AGAIN TOMORROW, THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH
WARMER CONDITIONS.
2) WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING ABOVE AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WILL REMAIN
COOL WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD. A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING AND MAY KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
SOME DECENT INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES,
WITH CAPE JUST OVER 1000 J/KG. ALSO, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEAR IN PLAY WITH ENSEMBLES STILL INDICATING ANYWHERE BETWEEN
30 TO 45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST
CONTINUES TO HOLD, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS EVENTUALLY INTRODUCE BY SPC IN UPCOMING
FORECASTS. SEVERE TYPE IS MAINLY LOOKING LIKE A WIND THREAT,
BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME CURVATURE OF THE WINDS IN
THE LOW LEVELS, SO IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP WITH LOW
ENOUGH LCLS, THERE COULD BE A WEAK TORNADO RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ZONAL, WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850
MB THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HELPING TO BOOST AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COULD SETTLE OVER THE
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS WOULD LIKELY SEND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY. ALSO, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE,
WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY CLIMBING INTO THE 60S OR
EVEN HIGHER, SO IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY WITH THE HEAT. AT
THIS TIME, STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY HEAT HEADLINES
WOULD BE NEEDED, AS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CLOUD
COVER, AND WE COULD BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA LATER TODAY, WHICH COULD GENERATE FOG AND IFR AND LOWER
RESTRICTIONS AT ELM/BGM/ITH TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
DEVELOPING IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG/MPK
AVIATION...JTC
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