229
FXUS61 KBGM 241723
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
123 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ONE MORE PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE BEFORE A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
2) CONDITIONS WILL TREND WARMER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY, LEADING TO DRY AND
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE 70S WITH LOW
HUMIDITY EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S.
SKY COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. SHOWERS ALONG A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING HOURS. MODELS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY LOW VALUES OF
MLCAPE (UP TO 500 J/KG) WITH 30 TO 40 KTS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO NOT BE STEEP EITHER. GIVEN
THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WOULD
ALLOW FOR MORE DAYTIME HEATING AND MORE INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SLOWEST WITH
POPS. THE TREND OF UPCOMING MODEL RUNS SHOULD GIVE A BETTER IDEA
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONGER STORMS.
LINGERING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN SHOWERS AS
DRIER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. THE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM SLOWLY PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS
COMBINATION WILL SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. THE NORTHERN LOW WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT FAR
ENOUGH AWAY THAT MOST OF CENTRAL NY DRIES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OVER THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER MUCH
OF THE COUNTRY, INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
WARMER BEGINNING SATURDAY AS HIGHS GO FROM THE 70S TO THE 80S
AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW 90S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. INITIALLY, THE
HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW BUT THAT TOO WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN SUNDAY
AND WILL GENERALLY KEEP CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK THOUGH A COUPLE OF PASSING SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD. SOME VFR CEILINGS
AT AROUND 4K FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE DAY, THESE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
A WARM FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING
WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MOST SITES SHOULD STAY NEAR VFR, BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR LIKELY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...JTC/MPK
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