834
FXUS61 KBGM 241815
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
215 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
2) CONDITIONS WILL TREND WARMER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING
WEST OF THE I81 CORRIDOR. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS, HOWEVER, BY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW EVENING, THERE COULD BE SOME
CLEARING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THIS WOULD CREATE SOME
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF 500 - 1000 J/KG AND THERE WILL BE SOME
DECENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AT 40+ KNOTS. LATEST CAMS ARE KICKING
OFF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NY AND PUSHING INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT, BUT SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET, THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL MAINLY BE BEFORE SUNSET TOMORROW.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL DETERMINE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE ENTIRE AREA MOSTLY DRY ON FRIDAY, BUT
EVENTUALLY THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NEPA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE NE U.S. INTO SUNDAY, BUT
EVENTUALLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILDS OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER BEGINNING
SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY
WILL ALSO INCREASE BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH
MONDAY, HOWEVER, WE COULD BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RING OF FIRE SET UP. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BRING RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD. SOME VFR CEILINGS
AT AROUND 4K FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE DAY, THESE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
A WARM FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING
WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MOST SITES SHOULD STAY NEAR VFR, BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR LIKELY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...MPK
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