846
FXUS61 KBGM 251046
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE
DEPARTURE OF SHOWERS. CHANCES FOR THUNDER WERE REMOVED FOR
SATURDAY AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO
START THE WEEKEND.
2) CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO TREND WARMER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND SOME, NOT PUSHING IN UNTIL
MID TO LATE MORNING AND SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE THOUGH AREAS
WEST OF I-81 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORNING SHOWERS. THE CAMS
KICKOFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THE FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTED
INSTABILITY LATER TODAY. WHILE THE NAM AND NAMNEST USUALLY RUN HOT,
THE LATEST RUNS SHOW 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE FOR MOST OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE 00Z HRRR HAS LITTLE TO
NOTHING FOR INSTABILITY WITH VALUES UNDER 500 J/KG. THE MORNING
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE A FACTOR IN THIS. AREAS SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER ARE FAVORED TO BE DRY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, SO THIS IS WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY WOULD BE
EXPECTED. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40
KTS. IF THERE CAN BE SOME INSTABILITY, THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR
APPEARS TO BE THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE ARE USUALLY ONE
OF THE MISSING INGREDIENTS AND LATER TODAY LOOKS TO BE NO
DIFFERENT AS THEY WILL BE MODEST AT BEST. A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR TODAY WITH WINDS BEING THE
MAIN HAZARD.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE LOW WILL LINGER
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS LOW AND
PASSING WAVES ALONG AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. AS THESE
SHOWERS COME TO AN END LATE FRIDAY, A WEAK SYSTEM WILL STRETCH FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM
POTENTIALLY MOVE IN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK. SOME MODELS FAVOR A BAND OF DRY AIR ACROSS
THE REGION AND LIMIT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM. OTHERS KEEP
THE DRIER AIR MORE NORTH, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD.
FOR NOW, THIS UPDATE LEANED ON THE NBM THAT HAS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL NY. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO THUNDER CHANCES WERE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL INTO CANADA BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER HEADING INTO THE START
OF JULY. INITIALLY, THE HUMIDITY WILL BE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WILL INCREASE MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE
AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW 90S
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR THIS WARM UP. PART OF THAT IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THAT COULD HELP BRING SOME SHORT-TERM RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IS OVER ELM/ITH/BGM/AVP, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND STORMS HITTING TERMINALS IS TOO LOW TO
HAVE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN A PROB30 IN THE TAFS. SYR AND RME MAY
ALSO SEE SOME STORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IN STORMS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA IS LOW GIVEN THE RAIN AND CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE RAIN.
CURRENTLY, ELM HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS. BGM AND
ITH MAY ALSO SEE FOG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
ANY LOWER THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR LIKELY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...JTC
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