933
FXUS61 KBGM 251728
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
128 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES FOR THUNDER WERE REMOVED AGAIN FOR SATURDAY, AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEKEND.
2) CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO TREND WARMER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE FINGER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON, BUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THIS FIRST WAVE. HEAVIER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY THIS EVENING OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WITH PWATS INCREASING ABOVE 1.5 INCH.
ALTHOUGH THERMAL DYNAMICS LOOKS MINIMAL, WITH MUCAPE LESS THAN
1000 J/KG, FORCING AND WIND SHEAR ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE AND STRONG 300 MB JET STREAK PUNCHES INTO WESTERN NY
LATER THIS EVENING. STRONG JET DYNAMICS WITH OUR AREA FOCUSED IN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS INCOMING JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE
LIFT AND THUS HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40 - 50
KT RANGE, SO ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED FOR A SEVERE WIND THREAT. ALSO, ALTHOUGH A WEAK
TORNADO THREAT IS LOW, LOW LEVEL HELICITY WILL BE ENHANCED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT, SO THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED AND BRIEF WEAK TORNADO, EVEN IN LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND A 2% CHANCE FOR WEAK
TORNADOES INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED WITH WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH PLUS OF RAIN POSSIBLE AND LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER STORMS. WPC
HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTION OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE LOW WILL
LINGER NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM
THIS LOW AND PASSING WAVES ALONG AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. AS THESE SHOWERS COME TO AN END LATE FRIDAY, A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL STRETCH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM POTENTIALLY MOVE IN AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK. SOME
MODELS FAVOR A BAND OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND LIMIT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM. OTHERS KEEP THE DRIER AIR MORE
NORTH, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO EXTEND NORTHWARD. FOR NOW, THIS
UPDATE LEANED ON THE NBM THAT HAS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXTENDING
INTO CENTRAL NY. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO THUNDER CHANCES WERE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST SUNDAY, AS A RIDGE
EXTENDING WELL INTO CANADA BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER HEADING INTO THE START OF JULY. INITIALLY,
THE HUMIDITY WILL BE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT WILL
INCREASE BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE, AS
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW 90S
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR THIS WARM UP. PART OF THAT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THAT COULD HELP BRING SOME SHORT-TERM
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS WE WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE.
ALSO, SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EML PLUMES PUSHING UP AND AROUND THE
RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THESE STRONGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED,
AS ANY WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT
COULD KICK OFF SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, POSSIBLY DURING
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IS OVER ELM/ITH/BGM/AVP, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND STORMS HITTING TERMINALS IS TOO LOW TO
HAVE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN A PROB30 IN THE TAFS. SYR AND RME MAY
ALSO SEE SOME STORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IN STORMS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA IS LOW GIVEN THE RAIN AND CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE RAIN.
CURRENTLY, ELM HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS. BGM AND
ITH MAY ALSO SEE FOG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
ANY LOWER THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR LIKELY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...JTC
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