832
FXUS61 KBGM 261723
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
123 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE SINCE THE LAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING LEADING TO A BREAK IN SHOWERS FOR MOST TODAY. HOWEVER,
THERE WILL BE A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION. WAVES WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING LOW TO
SUPPORT SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED, THOUGH WITH SOME 0-6 KM SHEAR EXPECTED, RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THESE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
LATE TODAY WHILE A SYSTEM STRETCHES OUT FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL EXTEND AS
FAR NORTH AS NY'S SOUTHERN TIER. ANY INSTABILITY WILL BE WELL
SOUTH, SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WITH BOTH ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS, PWATS WILL BE LESS THAN 1.5", SO RAIN WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN PLEASANT
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR BOTH NIGHTS
WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND WELL INTO CANADA AND
WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS, THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR MUCH WARMER AIR
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DESPITE FLOW RANGING BETWEEN WEST TO NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE 90S BY MIDWEEK. THE CURRENT NBM HAS
TEMPERATURES NEAR PREVIOUS RECORDS, THOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW WARM IT WILL GET. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARD
NBM'S 25TH PERCENTILE. SUNNY SKIES UNDER A JULY SUN THOUGH COULD
EASILY PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S. NO MATTER HOW WARM IT GETS,
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE, LEADING TO ELEVATED HEAT INDICES.
HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED NEXT WEEK AS WE NEAR CLOSER TO THE
HOTTEST DAYS.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE UP TO
THE REGION. MULTIPLE WAVES WILL FOLLOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND MIDWEEK. THESE SHOWERS COULD BRING SOME
SHORT-TERM RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR EML PLUMES EARLY
TO MIDWEEK. THIS AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS THIS COULD LEAD TO STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS AROUND 3,500 FEET.
OTHERWISE, AFTER SUNSET SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLEAR OTHER THAN SOME
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD
FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH RME/ITH/BGM/ELM HAVING THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE IFR VISBY AND CEILINGS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NEPA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AND THIS COULD POSSIBLY CREATE SOME MIXING AND
LIFT THE FOG BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR LIKELY DURING THE DAY, VALLEY
FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR, BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLIMATE
CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
6/30: BGM - 92 (1964), SYR - 94 (1971), AVP - 97 (1964)
7/1: BGM - 90 (2018), SYR - 94 (2018), AVP - 95 (2018)
7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...JTC/MPK
CLIMATE...BTL
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