298
FXUS61 KBGM 261821
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
ALSO EXPANDED COVERAGE OF FOG FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY, MOST AFTERNOONS THROUGH
THIS NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE CHANCES OF POP UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND STICK THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK, AND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY, IT WILL BE MUGGY AS
WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW BRINGS CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS TO NEPA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER TOMORROW. ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN SUNDAY,
HEAT WILL BE BUILDING. INITIALLY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND
WITH A DRIER DAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT BY TUESDAY, A SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN US WITH A BROAD LOW IN THE CENTRAL US
THAT HELPS ADVECT IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. TUESDAY AND BEYOND,
MODELS SHOW 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON. WE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE NE EDGE OF THE RIDGE
FOR SHORTWAVES RIDING AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO HAVE ENOUGH
LIFT TO TRIGGER STORMS. SHEAR IS GOING TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BETTER UP IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS. DOWNBURST AND
MICROBURST WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE BUILDING INTO THE
EASTERN US OVER THE NEXT WEEK. TOMORROW WILL BE THE LAST COOLER
DAY AS WEAK NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURE BELOW 15C.
SUNDAY IS WHEN THE RIDGE BEGINS TO REALLY BUILD WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING TOWARDS 590 DM AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB
INCREASES. DRY AIR THROUGH THE SOUNDINGS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
AT LEAST LIMIT THE MUGGINESS, DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE
TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE SATURATED. SOME
MODELS ARE PUSHING DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S MID TO
LATE WEEK, WHICH LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM SOIL
MOISTURE, IT IS LOOKING POSSIBLE. AN EARLY LOOK AT HEAT INDICES
DOES SHOW WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S AND EVEN LOW 100S THOUGH WITH
THE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY
LIMIT THESE VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECKS AROUND 3,500 FEET.
OTHERWISE, AFTER SUNSET SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLEAR OTHER THAN SOME
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD
FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH RME/ITH/BGM/ELM HAVING THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE IFR VISBY AND CEILINGS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NEPA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AND THIS COULD POSSIBLY CREATE SOME MIXING AND
LIFT THE FOG BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR LIKELY DURING THE DAY, VALLEY
FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR, BUT SOME RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLIMATE
CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
6/30: BGM - 92 (1964), SYR - 94 (1971), AVP - 97 (1964)
7/1: BGM - 90 (2018), SYR - 94 (2018), AVP - 95 (2018)
7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...JTC/MPK
CLIMATE...BTL
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