197
FXUS61 KBGM 101751
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
151 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY,
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
TWIN TIERS AND INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY.
2) COMFORTABLY WARM CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COOL FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH TODAY LEADING TO A
GRADUAL WIND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY EARLY THIS MORNING TO MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND THE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH.
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TWIN TIERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WHILE THE WIND SHIFT WILL HELP LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES NOT BEING QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY FROM THE TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S,
IT WILL STILL REMAIN HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN THE WYOMING AND
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEYS IN NE PA.
WHILE THERE CAN BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND NORTH-CENTRAL NY, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD TROUGHINESS ABOVE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS FROM WEST
TO EAST. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN
SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FINGER LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER, NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS LIKELY
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY MODEST. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH ABOUT 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE FROM AROUND STEUBEN COUNTY EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND SE INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES DO LOOK LIKE THEY HAVE TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AVERAGING 25-30 KNOTS. PUTTING THIS
ALL TOGETHER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS CAN
BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE, WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. SPC DOES STILL
MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THIS AREA.
TO GO ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM WHICH CAN RESULT IN ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF PONDING ON ROADWAYS OR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING,
MAINLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS INTO
THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS. PWATS LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 1.50
INCHES WITH MBE VECTORS AS LOW AS 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING OR BACK BUILDING STORMS. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY ALL ADD UP TO A MARGINAL RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA FROM WPC.
MOVING INTO SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND THIS COULD SPARK AND ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY
FROM THE TWIN TIERS ON SOUTH, BUT THEN MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE
FILTERING IN IN ITS WAKE, LEADING TO VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE THE 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY
COMBINED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW DEW POINTS WILL LEAD
TO A PLEASANT WEEKEND OVERALL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, WHICH PUTS US AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S.
A BROAD AND VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM THE COMFORTABLE NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE WEEKEND TO A WARMER
WESTERLY WIND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 80S IN MOST PLACES WITH UPPER 80S IN THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S, BUT
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE RISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE HEAT. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY, WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE LONG
RANGE FOR ANY POSSIBLE HEAT HEADLINES.
WITH THE STRONG RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OFF TO OUR WEST AND GENERAL
TROUGHINESS OVER NEW ENGLAND, IT DOES PLACE OUR AREA IN A
POSITION WHERE WE DO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
"RIDGE RIDERS" THAT COULD RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DOES NOT HANDLE THESE SITUATIONS WELL,
SO THIS IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING INTO EARLY AND
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS (AT
LEAST THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY). HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR. THIS IS MAINLY THE CASE AT KAVP, BUT MAY
ALSO OCCUR AT KELM. THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE TAFS FOR KBGM
AND KITH, AS CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THOSE TERMINALS.
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
KELM, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS DUE TO A POSSIBLE
STRATUS DECK OVERHEAD AT THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, WITH POSSIBLE MORNING FOG AT
KELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...BJG
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