765
FXUS61 KBGM 110545
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, QPF AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS, QPF AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE
INCREASED AND EXPANDED NORTHWESTWARD ON SATURDAY; BRINING ISOLATED
T'STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS, CATSKILLS AND NE PA. TUESDAY
IS TRENDING HOTTER, WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS, THICKNESSES AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER FROM THE TWIN TIERS SOUTH, QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING FRONT DROPS SOUTH. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM.
2) A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND
HOT WEATHER TO THE AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK. A FRONT LIKELY BRINGS
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A WEAK WIND SHIFT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA FOR THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM ABOUT HORNELL--ELMIRA--BINGHAMTON AND MONTICELLO. TEMPERATURES
ARE RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S, ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS IS CREATING MLCAPE BETWEEN 750-1500 J/KG IN
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. PWATS ARE BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES IN
THIS AREA AS WELL, WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR RUNNING 25-30 KTS. OVERALL,
THIS SETUP WILL POTENTIALLY YIELD A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND SOME
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH, OR ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS. RAINFALL RATES AROUND
1"/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST...CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER RAIN RATES. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS 1.5-2"/HR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA, SO
WE WILL BE MONITORING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND RATES CLOSELY INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE REMAIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND MOST
OF NE PA. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING, LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY, CHARACTERIZED BY A MOISTURE GRADIENT AND
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG I-80 IN NE PA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH BETWEEN 600-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXPECTED. THE LATEST CAMS
SUCH AS THE HRRR, 3KM NAM AND 12Z RRFS ARE SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS POPPING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL NY AND
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NE PA HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE, WITH THESE LATEST INDICATIONS FROM
THE CAMS, INCREASED POPS ABOVE THE LATEST NBM, TO INCLUDE GENERALLY
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE,
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID-80S ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE LOOKING DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THEN, THE BUILDING HEAT DOME OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SHIFT EAST FOR TUESDAY.
500MB HEIGHTS RISE TO AROUND 594DM, WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES UP
AROUND 580DM EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE TO AROUND +21C.
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DEW POINTS LOOK
TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOW/MID-60S FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGHS TO SURGE UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID-90S. THIS WILL
BE CLOSE TO DAILY RECORD HIGHS, AND BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MID-JULY. THE CORE OF THE TRULY EXTREME HEAT LOOKS TO
REMAIN JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. A TROUGH AND NW FLOW DEVELOPS BY
WEDNESDAY, WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES SLIDING BACK SLIDING BACK TO
AROUND +18C AND AROUND +15 BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE WEATHER
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS (AT
LEAST THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY). THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL
VISBY FLUCTUATIONS TO MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING AT KELM AND/OR
KITH, SO INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT THOSE TWO TERMINALS. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
AT KAVP AND THEREFORE INCLUDED -SHRA AT KAVP FROM 20Z TO 00Z.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER, BUT THE CHANCES
WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, WITH POSSIBLE MORNING
FOG AT KELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...BJG
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