209
FXUS61 KBGM 112348
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
748 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER, RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES HEADING
INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, MAINLY IN NE PA. COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS SETTLE IN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
2) A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK. A FRONT LIKELY BRINGS
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN, CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THE NY/PA BORDER
REGION DOWN INTO NE PA. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED, WITH MORE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO SLOWLY DROP
SOUTH INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS BEFORE SUNSET (4-8PM).
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW, WITH AROUND 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
NOTED ON THE LATEST 18Z MESOANALYSIS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG, WITH GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PWATS ARE
1.3 INCHES ACROSS LUZERNE COUNTY, BUT SHOULD BE SLOWLY FALLING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH. ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EXIT OUR
CWA BY 9-10 PM AT THE LATEST.
IT SHOULD BE QUIET OVERNIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG (ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE PA). IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A BUILDING HEAT DOME OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES STARTS
TO EXPAND AND SHIFT EAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
RISING TO AROUND 594DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DEW POINTS LOOK TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOW
AND MID 60S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGHS TO SURGE UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THIS WILL
BE CLOSE TO DAILY RECORD HIGHS, AND BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MID-JULY. MAX HEAT INDICES COULD BE CLOSE TO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THESE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE CORE OF THE TRULY EXTREME HEAT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST WEST
OF OUR AREA. A TROUGH AND NW FLOW DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND PERSISTS INTO LATE WEEK. INITIALLY DRIER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN ON THE NW FLOW, AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM TO
HOT ON WEDNESDAY. DEW POINTS FALL EVEN LOWER ON WEDNESDAY, BETWEEN
55 TO 60F IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SUNNY AND DRY
ON WEDNESDAY
AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO FALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN
THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, TEMPERATURES SLIDE BACK DOWN INTO
THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR LATE WEEK. THE WEATHER LOOKS TO
REMAIN DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REENTERS THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A FEW SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO AVP THIS
EVENING, BUT OTHERWISE IT IS LOOKING VFR FOR ALL SITES. ELM AND
ITH HAVE DRIED OUT THIS AFTERNOON SO THE FOG CHANCES WERE
REMOVED AS ODDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR; PATCHY, MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK/MJM
AVIATION...AJG/BTL
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