972
FXUS61 KBGM 120707
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
307 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM NBM DUE TO A
WARM BIAS AND LOWS TAKEN DOWN IN PLACES WITH A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET UP THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. WINDS WERE INCREASED
ON TUESDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COMFORTABLY WARM TODAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY IN PLACE. A STRAY
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN NORTHEAST
PA, MAINLY TOWARD THE POCONOS.
2) A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
INCREASINGLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA, WITH THE PEAK
OF THE HEAT OCCURRING MIDWEEK.
3) A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
LIKELY BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO A PRETTY
QUIET DAY OVERALL WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THERE IS A PLUME OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT PUSHES INTO NE PA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THAT LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH THAT IS OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY MAY SPARK A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-84.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS MAKING
A RUN INTO THE UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S, SO IT WILL BE A COMFORTABLY WARM
DAY. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN EXPANSIVE HEAT DOME STRETCHING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY WILL START TO SHIFT EAST
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND
594DM TUESDAY. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND DEW POINTS LOOK TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S FOR MOST
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND THE PEAK OF THE HEAT IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HIGHS TO SURGE UP INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-JULY, AND MAY CHALLENGE SOME
RECORDS (KBGM'S RECORD IS 93 SET IN 1954 AND KSYR'S RECORD IS
95 SET IN 1952). THE CORE OF THE TRULY EXTREME HEAT LOOKS TO
REMAIN JUST WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. ONE THING THAT MAY
TRY TO PLAY A BIT OF A SPOILER IN OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY
TO MID WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE TO STREAM DOWN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE RIDGE AS THERE
HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF NEW FIRES THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN CANADA.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EAST, WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ANY POTENTIAL WAVES OF ENERGY THAT COULD RESULT IN "RIDGE
RIDERS" AS MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HANDLE THOSE STORM COMPLEXES
WELL. HOWEVER, THEY DO SEEM HONING IN ON A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND, SO THIS IS
SOMETHING TO MONITOR DOWN THE ROAD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
STARTING WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY EXPAND
SOUTH INTO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RETREATING BACK TO THE WEST. WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A TRANSITIONAL
DAY, A RANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS CNY WHILE NE PA REMAINS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE
WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, OTHERWISE,
LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND AVP, CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE CHANCE
FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AROUND ITH LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION SHOWN BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS. IF ANYTHING PATCHY CAN DEVELOP, THE BEST WINDOW
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z BUT WITH A FRESH, DRY AIR MASS
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AROUND AVP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OR LOCATION OF ANY POP UP IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK:
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR; PATCHY, MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...DK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page