279
FXUS61 KBGM 131720
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
120 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS WITH SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT START TO THE WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.
2) THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST, WITH SOME
EAST COAST TROUGHING TRYING TO BRING COOLER, BUT MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER, FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NY AND PA ARE UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY AND TOMORROW. GIVEN THAT WE ARE ON THE EASTERN
EDGE, THERE IS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EVEN FOR LATER TODAY IN
REGARDS TO STORMS. LOOKING UPSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES, THERE IS A LARGE MCS THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAINTAIN
ITSELF. FORECAST MODELS DO HAVE A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
THAT MOVES IN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE BUT
GIVEN THAT THE MODELS ALSO ARE FAILING TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
MCS, THERE IS A CHANCE WE WILL SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN KEPT LOW, BUT DID AT LEAST ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE, FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED LATER THIS
MORNING IF THE MCS DOES NOT WEAKEN.
TODAY WILL BE WARM BUT NOT AS WARM AS TOMORROW WILL BE. LOOKING
AT 850 MB TEMPERATURES, THE NAM IS VERY WARM, WITH A POCKET OF
25C TO 27C AIR MOVING IN. THE ALL TIME RECORD OBSERVED 850 MB
TEMP AT BUFS UPPER AIR SITE IS 25C AND ALYS SITE IS 23C.
ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPS ARE AROUND 24C WHICH IS ABOVE MODEL
CLIMATOLOGY. GIVEN FULL SUN, WE MAY MIX ALL THE WAY UP SO THERE
IS A CHANCE, IF THAT POCKET OF WARM AIR MOVES THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, TO GET INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOCALIZED
AREAS NEAR 100. VERY DRY AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM
POCKET SO THAT WOULD MIX DOWN THE DEW POINTS WITH THE HEAT INDEX
NOT CHANGING MUCH. DID LOWER HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM NBM BUT
DID NOT LOWER IT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN A LITTLE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A GREATER MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. A
FAILURE MODE FOR THE HEAT COULD BE SMOKE. MANY FIRES BURNING
ACROSS CANADA COULD LEAD TO LESS SOLAR RADIATION TUESDAY
PREVENTING AS DEEP OF MIXING AS WE COULD GET.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY WEST AS IT
RETROGRADES MID WEEK. WITH FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND A TROUGH
TRYING IT SNEAK IN FROM THE EAST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. RIDGE RIDING STORM SYSTEMS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WE END UP NEAR THE "RING OF FIRE". MOST
MODELS KEEP THE STORMS MAINLY IN NEW ENGLAND BUT FORECAST MODELS
PERFORM POORLY IN THESE SLOW, STAGNANT, RETROGRADING PATTERNS.
IF STORMS CAN SNEAK IN, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR UNDER THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE FOR SOME STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED STORMS
AND WE MAY HAVE A MORE ACTIVE MID TO LATE WEEK THAN MODELS
ADVERTISE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS (AT LEAST
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY). THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AT KITH, KELM, OR KBGM,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WSW WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WSW WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN BY THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR; PATCHY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ038>040.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ043-044-047-048-072.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...BJG
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