971
FXUS61 KBGM 140019
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
819 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED IN TIME, THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY SURROUNDING COUNTIES
IN NORTHEAST PA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCREASING FOR THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1)A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, HOT WEATHER AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
2) THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WEST, WITH
SOME EAST COAST TROUGHING TRYING TO BRING COOLER, BUT MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER, FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND FAR NORTHERN PA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MLCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG THIS IS ALLOWING A CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD
TO FORM. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T'STORMS ARE FORECAST TO POP UP
THROUGH SUNSET, MAINLY ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS REGION.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD.
ON TUESDAY, 500MB HEIGHTS ARE STILL PROGGED TO RISE UP AROUND 594DM,
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING +23C BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING THE LATEST NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 90S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE
WELL INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON (LOCALIZED AROUND 70F) THAT WILL
PUSH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 95 TO 105F FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THESE HOT TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES AS
SKIES LIKELY REMAIN SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ALL DAY. SOUNDING SHOW A
STRONG CAP, WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS VERY SHALLOW AND
FEW TO SCT AT BEST. THEREFORE, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE DECIDED TO
EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY TO ALL OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA FOR
TUESDAY, IN EFFECT 11 AM TO 8 PM. TUESDAY NIGHT STAYS VERY WARM AND
HUMID, WITH LOWS ON IN THE 70S. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, UP ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. ANY T'STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIZZLE OUT AND DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
REACHING ONEIDA COUNTY OR THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
ON WEDNESDAY, HEIGHT START TO FALL AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH, WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL NY BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES STILL REACH THE MID-80S TO LOW
90S ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF NE PA; BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY AND NE PA SOUTH OF I-84, THE NW
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL ALLOW
FOR VERY HOT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S IN THE WYOMING VALLEY, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 95
TO 105F EXPECTED. THEREFORE, THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED IN TIME
FOR WYOMING--LUZERNE--LACKAWANNA--PIKE AND SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON THURSDAY, WITH SUNNY SKIES, LOW
HUMIDITY AND HIGHS IN THE 80S.
FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO STAY MAINLY DRY AS WELL, BUT TROUGHING STARTS TO
DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST US A BIT MORE. OVERALL, STILL LOOKING AT
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WETTER,
PUSHING POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY; WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THIS, HEADING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS
FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS
TO HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SETTLE IN THIS EVENING
WITH WSW WINDS PICKING UP ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR; PATCHY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ038>040.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ043-044-047-048-072.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...AJG/MJM
AVIATION...BJG/ES
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