624
FXUS61 KBGM 141856
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY SEVERAL MORE
DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO SMOKE
FROM WILDFIRES IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA LIMITING SOLAR HEATING.
THAT BEING SAID, ALL HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN INTACT SINCE IT
WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT COOLER IN CENTRAL NY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH, BUT IT WILL REMAIN HOT
AND HUMID ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST PA. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA MAY LIMIT SOLAR HEATING SOMEWHAT.
2) COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A VERY WARM AIRMASS OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO RESULT IN VERY WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60 TO
NEAR 70. THE HAZE DUE TO SMOKE ALOFT FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA HAS LIMITED SOLAR HEATING A LITTLE BIT SO
FAR, BUT LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THIS HAZE TEMPORARILY
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO PROGRESS.
THIS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S BY THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY 95-100 DEGREES. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN
THE IMMEDIATE SYRACUSE AREA, WHERE IT MAY FEEL CLOSER TO 105
DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM AREA-WIDE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
MOVE IN FOR CENTRAL NY (STILL REMAINING HOT ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHEAST PA). THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING IN LESS HUMID AIR FOR
CENTRAL NY AS DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LATEST NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS OF SMOKE GETTING CLOSE TO THE SURFACE ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
FOR NOW, REDUCED FORECAST HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY BY SEVERAL MORE
DEGREES, BUT IT IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE THAT FORECAST HIGHS MAY NEED
TO BE REDUCED FURTHER. FOR NOW, OPTED TO KEEP THE HEAT
ADVISORIES WE HAVE OUT FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS IN
NORTHEAST PA INTACT TO AVOID MIXED MESSAGING AND BECAUSE SMOKE
CONCENTRATIONS MAY BE A BIT LESS THERE, BUT IT IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE HEAT INDICES MAY FALL A BIT BELOW CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE STRONG RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, BUT DEW POINTS WILL BE LOW. ONE
THING TO WATCH THURSDAY IS WHAT HAPPENS UPSTREAM IN CANADA NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE DRY, BUT WITH NY/PA
RIGHT UNDER THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE,
IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO GET A STORM COMPLEX DEVELOP AND DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
BETTER CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES
THIS WEEKEND AS THE AXIS OF THE BIG RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHEAST. 0-6 KM SHEAR THIS WEEKEND IS ELEVATED WITH THE JET
STREAM OVERHEAD AND NW FLOW, WITH VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 30 AND
50 KNOTS. MOST MODELS HAVE AT LEAST SOME CAPE DEVELOPING
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
6C/KM AND 7C/KM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEAR TERM WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AND SMOKE
PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA WILL SETTLE LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND POSSIBLY AFFECT GROUND LEVELS WITH HIGH PARTICULATES AND
RESTRICTIVE VISIBILITIES ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A DENSE ENOUGH
CORRIDOR TO AFFECT KSYR-KITH-KBGM WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AFTER 12Z
WEDS. OTHER AIRPORTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME EFFECT FROM
HZ OR FU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST AT KELM AND KAVP.
GUST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TRIM OFF THIS EVENING AND RECOVER LATE
TOMORROW MORNING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY
AT TIMES DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA. MVFR SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST CONFIDENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT
LOCAL IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILDFIRE SMOKE DENSITY IS STILL
UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ043-044-047-048-
072.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-
044>046-055>057.
DISCUSSION...AJG/BJG
AVIATION...JAB
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