028
FXUS61 KBGM 150522
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
122 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED EVEN FURTHER AND IT
STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH AS THE SMOKE IS LOOKING POTENTIALLY VERY
THICK. SMOKE WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SMOKEY SKIES EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FROM ACTIVE
WILDFIRES IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
2) COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FOR WILDFIRES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA RELEASED GRATUITOUS AMOUNTS OF SMOKE OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH FASTER FLOW ALOFT, WE SAW SOME
ELEVATED SMOKE YESTERDAY BUT TODAY THE SURFACE SMOKE WILL BE
MOVING IN. VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE IN BOTH THE HRRR AND THE
RAP SHOW THAT WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF THICK SMOKE TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. SURFACE VISIBILITY MAY FALL BELOW 3 MILES WITH THE
SMELL OF SMOKE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
WERE LOWERED BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES BUT THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.
AREAS UNDER THE THICKER SMOKE YESTERDAY WERE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MODELED FOR HIGHS.
TOMORROW IS A TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR THE SMOKE TO REMAIN THICK. SMOKE ALLOWS FOR LONG WAVE
RADIATION TO PASS THROUGH SO COOLING IS NOT AFFECTED SO
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY END UP BEING COOLER THAN FORECAST AS
WELL. THICK SMOKE REMAINING THURSDAY WOULD PREVENT HEATING FROM
A COOLER START SO HIGHS COULD BE ON THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
RATHER THAN MID TO UPPER 80S BUT THE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THERE TO
LOWER THEM THAT MUCH.
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO FRIDAY SO IF THE
FIRES REMAIN BURNING AT AN ELEVATED INTENSITY, FRIDAY COULD BE
ANOTHER SMOKEY DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. 0-6 KM SHEAR
IS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS SO A FEW STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER DAY TIME HEATING MAY BECOME SEVERE. WE REMAIN ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN US SO REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE SEVERE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEAR TERM WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AND SMOKE
PASSING THROUGH. UPSTREAM METSAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
WILDFIRE SMOKE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO, CANADA THAT WILL ENTER
OUR REGION TODAY. SMOKE SHOULD BE AT SURFACE LEVEL TODAY, BUT
HOW THICK IT WILL BE AT THE SURFACE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THAT IT WILL AT LEAST BE DENSE
ENOUGH FOR MVFR VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING.
LLWS WAS REMOVED FROM ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING EXCEPT ELM,
BECAUSE ELM IS THE ONLY SITE WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED
ENOUGH, ELSEWHERE THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH MIXING AND SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH SO LLWS DOES NOT OCCUR. WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN AT ELM AROUND SUNRISE AND THIS WILL BRING
AN END TO THE LLWS THERE.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT
TIMES DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA. MVFR SEEMS TO BE THE
MOST CONFIDENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY, BUT LOCAL
IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILDFIRE SMOKE DENSITY IS STILL
UNCERTAIN FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
DISCUSSION...AJG/BJG
AVIATION...ES/MPK
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