343
FXUS61 KBGM 151048
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED EVEN FURTHER AND IT
STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH AS THE SMOKE IS LOOKING POTENTIALLY VERY
THICK. SMOKE WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SMOKEY SKIES EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FROM ACTIVE
WILDFIRES IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
2) COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FOR WILDFIRES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA RELEASED GRATUITOUS AMOUNTS OF SMOKE OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH FASTER FLOW ALOFT, WE SAW SOME
ELEVATED SMOKE YESTERDAY BUT TODAY THE SURFACE SMOKE WILL BE
MOVING IN. VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE IN BOTH THE HRRR AND THE
RAP SHOW THAT WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF THICK SMOKE TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. SURFACE VISIBILITY MAY FALL BELOW 3 MILES WITH THE
SMELL OF SMOKE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
WERE LOWERED BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES BUT THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.
AREAS UNDER THE THICKER SMOKE YESTERDAY WERE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MODELED FOR HIGHS.
TOMORROW IS A TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR THE SMOKE TO REMAIN THICK. SMOKE ALLOWS FOR LONG WAVE
RADIATION TO PASS THROUGH SO COOLING IS NOT AFFECTED SO
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY END UP BEING COOLER THAN FORECAST AS
WELL. THICK SMOKE REMAINING THURSDAY WOULD PREVENT HEATING FROM
A COOLER START SO HIGHS COULD BE ON THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
RATHER THAN MID TO UPPER 80S BUT THE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THERE TO
LOWER THEM THAT MUCH.
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO FRIDAY SO IF THE
FIRES REMAIN BURNING AT AN ELEVATED INTENSITY, FRIDAY COULD BE
ANOTHER SMOKEY DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. 0-6 KM SHEAR
IS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS SO A FEW STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER DAY TIME HEATING MAY BECOME SEVERE. WE REMAIN ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN US SO REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE SEVERE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPSTREAM METSAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW WILDFIRE SMOKE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO, CANADA AND NORTHERN NY, AND THIS SMOKE WILL
ENTER OUR REGION TODAY. SMOKE SHOULD BE AT SURFACE LEVEL TODAY,
BUT HOW THICK IT WILL BE AT THE SURFACE IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THAT IT WILL AT LEAST
BE DENSE ENOUGH FOR MVFR VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 16Z.
ALTHOUGH, BASED ON LATEST MODELS, THE SURFACE BASED SMOKE MAY
ONLY IMPACT SITES SOUTH OF THE I90 CORRIDOR.
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND 20KT.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT
TIMES DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA. MVFR SEEMS TO BE THE
MOST CONFIDENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY, BUT LOCAL
IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILDFIRE SMOKE DENSITY IS STILL
UNCERTAIN FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
DISCUSSION...AJG/BJG
AVIATION...ES/MPK
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