109
FXUS61 KBGM 151807
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
207 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED EVEN FURTHER AND IT
STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH AS THE SMOKE IS LOOKING POTENTIALLY VERY
THICK. SMOKE WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SMOKE IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FROM ACTIVE
WILDFIRES IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
2) COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FOR WILDFIRES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA RELEASED GRATUITOUS AMOUNTS OF SMOKE OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH FASTER FLOW ALOFT, WE SAW SOME
ELEVATED SMOKE YESTERDAY BUT TODAY THE SURFACE SMOKE WILL BE
MOVING IN. VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE IN BOTH THE HRRR AND THE
RAP SHOW THAT WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF THICK SMOKE TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. SURFACE VISIBILITY MAY FALL BELOW 3 MILES WITH THE
SMELL OF SMOKE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
WERE LOWERED BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES BUT THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.
AREAS UNDER THE THICKER SMOKE YESTERDAY WERE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MODELED FOR HIGHS.
TOMORROW IS A TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR THE SMOKE TO REMAIN THICK. SMOKE ALLOWS FOR LONG WAVE
RADIATION TO PASS THROUGH SO COOLING IS NOT AFFECTED SO
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY END UP BEING COOLER THAN FORECAST AS
WELL. THICK SMOKE REMAINING THURSDAY WOULD PREVENT HEATING FROM
A COOLER START SO HIGHS COULD BE ON THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
RATHER THAN MID TO UPPER 80S BUT THE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THERE TO
LOWER THEM THAT MUCH.
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO FRIDAY SO IF THE
FIRES REMAIN BURNING AT AN ELEVATED INTENSITY, FRIDAY COULD BE
ANOTHER SMOKEY DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. 0-6 KM SHEAR
IS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS SO A FEW STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER DAY TIME HEATING MAY BECOME SEVERE. WE REMAIN ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN US SO REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE SEVERE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF WILDFIRE SMOKE
STRETCHING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND INTO CNY AND THE TWIN TIERS. THIS PLUME OF SMOKE AND HAZE
IS CONTINUING TO DRIFT SOUTH WITH A MIX OF PREDOMINATELY VFR
AND MVFR VISBY THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. WHERE
THE SMOKE IS MOST DENSE, IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
OCCASION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW THICK THE SMOKE WILL BE
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 22Z-06Z) AS THE
HRRR SMOKE MODEL SHOWS THE SURFACE SMOKE BECOMING SLIGHTLY LESS
DENSE BEFORE BECOMING THICKER ONCE AGAIN. THE SURFACE SMOKE
DOES LOOK TO BE EVEN MORE DENSE TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY BY LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH CAN RESULT IN IFR VISBY.
ELM, ITH AND SYR HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR RESTRICTIONS PRIOR
TO 18Z TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY AT TIMES DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA. MVFR SEEMS TO
BE THE MOST CONFIDENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME, BUT LOCAL IFR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILDFIRE
SMOKE DENSITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...AJG/BJG
AVIATION...DK
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