201
FXUS61 KBGM 152325
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
725 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY WERE LOWERED EVEN
FURTHER DUE TO THE THICK SMOKE LIMITING SOLAR HEATING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SMOKE IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FROM ACTIVE
WILDFIRES IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE WYOMING
VALLEY AND POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PA.
2) COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS EXPECTED, SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED SOLAR HEATING AND IN
FACT, TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN A FEW DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF
THE AFTERNOON DURING A TIME THAT THEY WOULD NORMALLY BE RISING.
THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CORRIDOR OF LIGHTER SMOKE
CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY IN PA AND THIS HAS
ALLOWED ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THESE
ARE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT DO HAVE THE POTENTIALLY TO QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE BEFORE ALSO QUICKLY FALLING APART.
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE THICK SMOKE WILL LIKELY
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE WENT SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE NBM FOR THE FORECAST, WHICH RESULTED IN FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS IF
SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS REMAIN THICK ENOUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. 0-6 KM SHEAR
IS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS SO A FEW STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER DAY TIME HEATING MAY BECOME SEVERE. WE REMAIN ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN US SO REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE SEVERE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF WILDFIRE SMOKE
STRETCHING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND INTO CNY AND THE TWIN TIERS. THIS PLUME OF SMOKE AND HAZE
IS CONTINUING TO DRIFT SOUTH WITH A MIX OF PREDOMINATELY VFR
AND MVFR VISBY THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. WHERE
THE SMOKE IS MOST DENSE, IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
OCCASION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW THICK THE SMOKE WILL BE
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY THROUGH 06Z) AS THE
HRRR SMOKE MODEL SHOWS THE SURFACE SMOKE BECOMING SLIGHTLY LESS
DENSE BEFORE BECOMING THICKER ONCE AGAIN. THE SURFACE SMOKE DOES
LOOK TO BE EVEN MORE DENSE TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH CAN RESULT IN IFR VISBY. ELM, ITH
AND SYR HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR RESTRICTIONS PRIOR TO 18Z
TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY AT TIMES DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA. MVFR SEEMS TO
BE THE MOST CONFIDENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME, BUT LOCAL IFR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILDFIRE
SMOKE DENSITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...AJG/BJG
AVIATION...DK/ES
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