198
FXUS61 KBGM 160505
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
105 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE BROUGHT DOWN EVEN LOWER, AND
TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO LOWERED A COUPLE DEGREES
DUE TO SMOKE. SURFACE VISIBILITIES WERE ALSO LOWERED THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THICK SMOKE CONTINUES TODAY WITH HAZY SURFACE CONDITIONS.
SMOKE LOOKS TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT WITH A LOW MOVING IN, THE
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST, BRINGING IN LESS
SMOKEY AIR.
2) WETTER AND COOLER THIS WEEKEND AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
3) NORTHWEST FLOW NEXT WEEK KEEPS TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
AVERAGE, THOUGH PASSING COLD FRONTS COULD BRING SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NY AND PA ARE ONCE AGAIN DOWNWIND OF THE LARGE FIRES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND NORTHERN MN. THE HRRR AND RAP SMOKE MODELS
BOTH ARE INDICATING THAT THE SMOKE TODAY COULD BE MORE SURFACE
BASED. WITH SIMILAR OPTICAL DEPTHS AS YESTERDAY, SOLAR RADIANCE
AT THE SURFACE WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM MODELS. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO
WARM IF THE SMOKE ENDS UP BEING AS THICK AS MODELED THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL HELP CHANGE THE
FLOW. AS THE WINDS SWITCH FROM NW TO W AND EVENTUALLY SW AT THE
SURFACE, LESS SMOKEY AIR WILL MOVE IN. IT LIKELY WONT BE
COMPLETELY SMOKE FREE AS THERE IS SMOKE UPSTREAM IN IL AND IN
BUT DOES NOT LOOK NEARLY AS THICK AS WHAT IS OVER US RIGHT NOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED 500 MB SHORTWAVE FOR THE SUMMER TIME IS
DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THIS SURFACE LOW IS BROAD BUT WILL
BE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
IN. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE HIGH FOR SATURDAY BUT IT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE AN ALL DAY WASHOUT BUT MORE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS SOME LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN NY. THIS PUTS US
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE WARM SECTOR BEING FAIRLY CAPPED, AND WITH
SMOKE STILL LIKELY LINGERING TO SOME CAPACITY, THAT MAY HELP
STRENGTHEN THE CAP AND LIMIT HEATING. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
LIKELY GOING TO OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT THE TIME OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE LACKLUSTER SO ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
MIXING DOWN WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ONCE THE LOW IS THROUGH SUNDAY, DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN.
THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO STALL IN THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE FRONT RANGE WHICH KEEPS US ON THE EDGE OF
THE RIDGE. MODELS HAVE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT DIVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK. SHEAR WILL STILL BE THERE, WITH ENSEMBLE
MEANS OVER 30 KNOTS, SO ANY OF THESE SHORTWAVES COULD TRIGGER
STORMS AND A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF WILDFIRE SMOKE
STRETCHING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND INTO CNY AND THE TWIN TIERS. THIS PLUME OF SMOKE AND HAZE
IS CONTINUING TO DRIFT SOUTH WITH A MIX OF PREDOMINATELY VFR
AND MVFR VISBY THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. WHERE
THE SMOKE IS MOST DENSE, IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
OCCASION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW THICK THE SMOKE WILL BE
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY THROUGH 06Z) AS THE
HRRR SMOKE MODEL SHOWS THE SURFACE SMOKE BECOMING SLIGHTLY LESS
DENSE BEFORE BECOMING THICKER ONCE AGAIN. THE SURFACE SMOKE DOES
LOOK TO BE EVEN MORE DENSE TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH CAN RESULT IN IFR VISBY. ELM, ITH
AND SYR HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR RESTRICTIONS PRIOR TO 18Z
TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY AT TIMES DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA. MVFR SEEMS TO
BE THE MOST CONFIDENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME, BUT LOCAL IFR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILDFIRE
SMOKE DENSITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...AJG/BJG
AVIATION...DK/ES
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