508
FXUS61 KBGM 161044
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE BROUGHT DOWN EVEN LOWER, AND
TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO LOWERED A COUPLE DEGREES
DUE TO SMOKE. SURFACE VISIBILITIES WERE ALSO LOWERED THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THICK SMOKE CONTINUES TODAY WITH HAZY SURFACE CONDITIONS.
SMOKE LOOKS TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT WITH A LOW MOVING IN, THE
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST, BRINGING IN LESS
SMOKEY AIR.
2) WETTER AND COOLER THIS WEEKEND AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
3) NORTHWEST FLOW NEXT WEEK KEEPS TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
AVERAGE, THOUGH PASSING COLD FRONTS COULD BRING SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NY AND PA ARE ONCE AGAIN DOWNWIND OF THE LARGE FIRES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND NORTHERN MN. THE HRRR AND RAP SMOKE MODELS
BOTH ARE INDICATING THAT THE SMOKE TODAY COULD BE MORE SURFACE
BASED. WITH SIMILAR OPTICAL DEPTHS AS YESTERDAY, SOLAR RADIANCE
AT THE SURFACE WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM MODELS. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO
WARM IF THE SMOKE ENDS UP BEING AS THICK AS MODELED THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL HELP CHANGE THE
FLOW. AS THE WINDS SWITCH FROM NW TO W AND EVENTUALLY SW AT THE
SURFACE, LESS SMOKEY AIR WILL MOVE IN. IT LIKELY WONT BE
COMPLETELY SMOKE FREE AS THERE IS SMOKE UPSTREAM IN IL AND IN
BUT DOES NOT LOOK NEARLY AS THICK AS WHAT IS OVER US RIGHT NOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED 500 MB SHORTWAVE FOR THE SUMMER TIME IS
DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THIS SURFACE LOW IS BROAD BUT WILL
BE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
IN. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE HIGH FOR SATURDAY BUT IT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE AN ALL DAY WASHOUT BUT MORE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS SOME LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN NY. THIS PUTS US
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE WARM SECTOR BEING FAIRLY CAPPED, AND WITH
SMOKE STILL LIKELY LINGERING TO SOME CAPACITY, THAT MAY HELP
STRENGTHEN THE CAP AND LIMIT HEATING. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
LIKELY GOING TO OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT THE TIME OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE LACKLUSTER SO ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
MIXING DOWN WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ONCE THE LOW IS THROUGH SUNDAY, DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN.
THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO STALL IN THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE FRONT RANGE WHICH KEEPS US ON THE EDGE OF
THE RIDGE. MODELS HAVE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT DIVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK. SHEAR WILL STILL BE THERE, WITH ENSEMBLE
MEANS OVER 30 KNOTS, SO ANY OF THESE SHORTWAVES COULD TRIGGER
STORMS AND A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE ACROSS
THE REGION. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE IFR VISBY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR <2SM ARE TRENDING LESS
LIKELY. HOWEVER, WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
VISBY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THE LOSS
OF GOES19 SATELLITE DATA HAS ALSO ADDED TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE AS
WE ARE UNABLE TO ACCURATELY TRACK THE SMOKE OTHER THAN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM. THESE OBS MY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
SMOKE CONDITIONS ONCE IT REACHES CNY/NEPA.
SMOKEY CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIGHTEN UP TONIGHT AS MUCH OF
THE SMOKE SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME FOG
FORMATION AND IFR RESTRICTIONS AT RME/ITH/BGM IF SMOKE CLEARS
FAST ENOUGH AND WE CAN GET SOME CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. THESE
RESTRICTIONS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW THIS TRENDS FOR
THE NEXT TAF SET.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY... WILDFIRE SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...AJG/BJG
AVIATION...JTC
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