427
FXUS61 KBGM 161814
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
214 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE BROUGHT DOWN EVEN LOWER, AND
TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO LOWERED A COUPLE DEGREES
DUE TO SMOKE. SURFACE VISIBILITIES WERE ALSO LOWERED THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THICK SMOKE CONTINUES TODAY WITH HAZY SURFACE CONDITIONS.
SMOKE LOOKS TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT WITH A LOW MOVING IN, THE
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST, BRINGING IN LESS
SMOKEY AIR.
2) WETTER AND COOLER THIS WEEKEND AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
3) NORTHWEST FLOW NEXT WEEK KEEPS TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
AVERAGE, THOUGH PASSING COLD FRONTS COULD BRING SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NY AND PA ARE ONCE AGAIN DOWNWIND OF THE LARGE FIRES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND NORTHERN MN. THE HRRR AND RAP SMOKE MODELS
BOTH ARE INDICATING THAT THE SMOKE TODAY COULD BE MORE SURFACE
BASED. WITH SIMILAR OPTICAL DEPTHS AS YESTERDAY, SOLAR RADIANCE
AT THE SURFACE WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM MODELS. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO
WARM IF THE SMOKE ENDS UP BEING AS THICK AS MODELED THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL HELP CHANGE THE
FLOW. AS THE WINDS SWITCH FROM NW TO W AND EVENTUALLY SW AT THE
SURFACE, LESS SMOKEY AIR WILL MOVE IN. IT LIKELY WONT BE
COMPLETELY SMOKE FREE AS THERE IS SMOKE UPSTREAM IN IL AND IN
BUT DOES NOT LOOK NEARLY AS THICK AS WHAT IS OVER US RIGHT NOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED 500 MB SHORTWAVE FOR THE SUMMER TIME IS
DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THIS SURFACE LOW IS BROAD BUT WILL
BE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
IN. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE HIGH FOR SATURDAY BUT IT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE AN ALL DAY WASHOUT BUT MORE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS SOME LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN NY. THIS PUTS US
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE WARM SECTOR BEING FAIRLY CAPPED, AND WITH
SMOKE STILL LIKELY LINGERING TO SOME CAPACITY, THAT MAY HELP
STRENGTHEN THE CAP AND LIMIT HEATING. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
LIKELY GOING TO OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT THE TIME OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE LACKLUSTER SO ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
MIXING DOWN WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ONCE THE LOW IS THROUGH SUNDAY, DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN.
THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO STALL IN THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE FRONT RANGE WHICH KEEPS US ON THE EDGE OF
THE RIDGE. MODELS HAVE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT DIVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK. SHEAR WILL STILL BE THERE, WITH ENSEMBLE
MEANS OVER 30 KNOTS, SO ANY OF THESE SHORTWAVES COULD TRIGGER
STORMS AND A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE AREA WITH
A MIX OF MVFR/IFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MOST
DENSE SMOKE IN PLACE NOW THROUGH ABOUT 22Z AT MOST OF THE NY
TERMINALS AND UNTIL ABOUT 00Z-02Z NEAR AVP WHEN IFR VISBYS ARE
POSSIBLE. THESE LOW VISIBILITIES ARE REFLECTED ON AREA WEBCAMS
AS WELL WITH SATELLITE DATA STILL UNAVAILABLE.
MVFR RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY CAN
LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AROUND RME
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, MAINLY FROM 21Z-00Z, ALONG THE TAIL-END
OF A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AT RME AND SYR PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT AND REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AT ELM AND BGM AROUND
07-09Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE PATCHY FOG PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK AROUND ELM AND PERHAPS ITH, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW. AVP IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE SMOKE LIGHTEN UP SHORTLY AFTER
12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
BE VFR.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS;
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
THE REST OF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...AJG/BJG
AVIATION...DK
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