454
FXUS61 KBGM 170045
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
845 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMOKE COVERAGE WAS UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED FRIDAY. SMOKE MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
2) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
3) TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING AROUND MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP IN SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES FROM
ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE AND POOR AIR
QUALITY WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP
SHOW SMOKE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE SMOKE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
BEFORE A RESURGENCE BACK INTO THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD
HELP WITH CLEARING OUT THE SMOKE ONCE AGAIN.
THIS SMOKE MAY KEEP CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECASTED FOR A
FEW AREAS BUT WITH IMPROVEMENTS, NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED FOR
THE FORECAST TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
TEMPERATURES THEN FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S OVERNIGHT.
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT REMAINS ACTIVE FOR THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. COORDINATION WITH STATE PARTNERS MAY LEAD TO AN EXTENSION
OF THIS ALERT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO START
THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH EARLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW,
THOUGH TIMING LOOKS TO FAVOR LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
DAY, THOUGH IT DOES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES AS
HIGH AS 1500 J/KG. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST 40 KTS.
LAPSE RATES DO LOOK WEAK, ESPECIALLY AT THE MID-LEVELS. GIVEN THIS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT PRESENT.
THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE ISOLATED STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTS MIXING
DOWN. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MOIST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS PWATS WILL BE AS
HIGH AS 2 INCHES. GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR, THIS IS ONLY AROUND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS. WPC'S EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK IS ALSO MARGINAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
REVIEWING SOIL MOISTURE, CONDITIONS ARE DRY. ALSO, A LOW-LEVEL JET
OF 40 KTS WILL HELP PUSS THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION
FAIRLY QUICKLY. GIVEN THIS, THE CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING ARE LOW
HOWEVER, PONDING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
AFTER THE WET START TO THE WEEKEND, THE REWARD WILL BE A COOLER,
DRIER SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES MAY LINGER
IN THE MORNING FROM THE DEPARTING LOW AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PUSHES
IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THE WILL CLIMB MAX
OUT IN THE 70S AFTER CLIMBING INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT,
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
FOG AS SKIES WILL CLEAR, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, AND SHOWERS WILL HAVE
ADDED SOME MOISTURE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE LOW, SO CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PLEASANT. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO
THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING, SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH FOR INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME
BUT HIGHER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. PWATS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH THIS
NEXT SYSTEM LIKELY LEADING TO A SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE GENERAL PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
IT IS NOW, SO THERE MAY BE OFF-AND-ON PERIODS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE AREA WITH A
MIX OF MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS LINGERING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MOST DENSE PORTION OF THE SMOKE
WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THESE LOW VISIBILITIES ARE REFLECTED ON AREA WEBCAMS AND OBS.
MVFR RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AT RME AND SYR A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AT ELM AND BGM
AROUND 07- 09Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE PATCHY FOG
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AROUND ELM AND PERHAPS ITH, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW. AVP IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE SMOKE LIGHTEN UP SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO BE VFR.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS;
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
THE REST OF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...DK/SJW
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