815
FXUS61 KBGM 170453
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1253 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUING TO UPDATE SMOKE COVERAGE BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE WILL REMAIN PRESENT INTO FRIDAY BUT PUSH MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD AND THIN OUT. SMOKE MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
2) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRIMARILY WEST OF I-81.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
3) TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING AROUND MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL TREND SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE SMOKE PLUME EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS CLEARLY SHOW
THESE SMOKE TRENDS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE
POLLUTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER, AND PARTS OF NEPA MAY STAY
JUST WITHIN THE SLIGHTLY THICKER EDGE OF THE SMOKE. SMOKE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK INTO THE ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NEPA UNTIL MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
INTENSIFY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE AREA SHOULD THEN DESTABILIZE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES
NEARING 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT. WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY. THE LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK CONTINUES THE MARGINAL RISK FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA, BUT A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER, WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF NE PA WHERE
THE MAXIMUM INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST SHEAR.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE EXCESSIVELY MOIST WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS PWATS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DEEP MOISTURE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS INDICATE MAINLY DRY SOILS AND SMALLER STREAM CHANNELS
WITH LOW FLOWS ON MOST OTHER WATERCOURSES. WPC HAS PAINTED THE
REGION WITHIN A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK WHICH IS A
GOOD INDICATOR OF THE MAIN FLOOD RISK FOCUSING ON URBAN DRAINAGE
AREAS AND SMALL TOWN STORM DRAIN NETWORKS. MUCH OF THE RURAL
AREA IS DRIER THAN NORMAL AND WILL TAKE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
CONCENTRATED AND PROLONGED RAIN RATES FOR CHANNELIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
ALL OF THIS EXPECTED WEATHER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISRUPT AND MOVE THE
SMOKE OUT OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COMBINATION FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPING ACROSS THE
REGION. SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE WILDFIRE SMOKE RETURNING TO THE AREA TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE AREA WITH A
MIX OF MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS LINGERING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MOST DENSE PORTION OF THE SMOKE
WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THESE LOW VISIBILITIES ARE REFLECTED ON AREA WEBCAMS AND OBS.
MVFR RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AT RME AND SYR A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AT ELM AND BGM
AROUND 07- 09Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE PATCHY FOG
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AROUND ELM AND PERHAPS ITH, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW. AVP IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE SMOKE LIGHTEN UP SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO BE VFR.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS;
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
THE REST OF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAB
AVIATION...DK/SJW
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