061
FXUS61 KBGM 311759
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
TREND LATER FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
2) THE WEATHER PATTERN TURNS UNSETTLED SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
3) A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOST
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A WEEK OF UNSETTLED WEATHER, A WELCOME MAINLY DRY PERIOD
OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CATSKILLS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE LARGE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
WHICH WILL INTRODUCE A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 80S).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.8-1.9.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WHICH MAY RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE TO SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH, WHICH THEREFORE COULD DELAY THE ONSET
OF RAIN TO LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY, OR EVEN SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
ALSO WOULD ALSO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN
THE AREA ON MONDAY. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT ON SUNDAY, THIS SOLUTION IS APPEARING
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LATER TIMING AND LESS
INSTABILITY PRESENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
DAILY INSTABILITY-DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER SLOW MOVING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOG WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD. VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT ELM,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY, WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, AS A MOIST FRONTAL
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LINGERING CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDER; ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. MAINLY MONDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...KL/MPK
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