815
FXUS61 KBGM 011934
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
334 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THUNDER CHANCES WERE LIMITED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, A BLEND OF NBM AND WPC QPF WAS USED, WHICH
DOES BRING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING TO
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSES THE REGION.
2) A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE MID TO LATE WEEK
NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS A MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. IT WILL BE A HUMID DAY SUNDAY WITH
LIMITED SUNSHINE AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF
A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG IT, AND A SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. MEANWHILE A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL START TO SLOWLY
SHIFT WEST AND BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, A STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT DEVELOPS WITH MAINLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR VECTORS AND
WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS INCREASE TO NEARLY 12,000 FEET.
AS PWATS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TO AROUND
1.70- 2.00 INCHES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND WITH WINDS FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
THROUGH 500MB LINING UP PRETTY WELL, THERE IS THE CONCERN FOR
TRAINING TO DEVELOP. THIS POTENTIAL IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED BY MBE
VELOCITY VECTORS ON MODEL SOUNDINGS UNDER 10 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 2 AM AND 7 AM MONDAY. IT'S DURING THIS WINDOW IN
PARTICULAR THAT THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING SEEMS
HIGHEST, BUT IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER,
THIS THREAT COULD LAST LONGER INTO MONDAY. WITH THERE BEING SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THIS
CONVECTIVE SET UP, A BLEND OF THE NBM AND WPC WAS USED TO
REMOVE ANY CONVECTIVE BULLSEYES BUT STILL HIGHLIGHT THE AREA OF
GREATEST CONCERN OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND THE UPPER
DELAWARE RIVER BASIN GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS. THE RISK FOR
THUNDER DOES LOOK LOW SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF INSTABILITY, ALTHOUGH SHEAR DOES START TO INCREASE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. FOR NOW, THUNDER WAS CAPPED AT A
LOW-END CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AS MONDAY ROLLS AROUND WITH MLCAPE
VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND MUCAPE INCREASING TO
AROUND OR A BIT HIGHER THAN 1000 J/KG, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81.
THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DRIER
AIR STARTS TO FUNNEL IN LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SEVERAL FEATURES ALL LOOK TO COME TOGETHER TO KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THE BERMUDA HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EVEN MORE WEST,
DRAWING UP PLENTY OF VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND
DRIVING UP DEW POINTS. MEANWHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL CHANNEL
WAVES OF ENERGY TOWARD OUR REGION AND A WEAKENING CUT OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LOOKS TO GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE WEEK.
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO LOOKS TO TRY TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND PERHAPS STALL A
BIT. SO PUTTING EVERYTHING TOGETHER, THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DEW POINTS ANYWHERE FROM THE MID
60S TO AS HIGH AS THE MID 70S. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD SNEAK INTO KELM
DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, RAIN
SHOWERS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE PRIOR TO 18Z BEING AT KELM AND KRME.
THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT
THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY, WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED
THUNDER; ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...BJG
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