578
FXUS61 KBGM 020401
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1201 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE NORTHWEST OF OUR
REGION. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL IMPACT THE
POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS, SO QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED IN THESE AREAS. AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY INTO MONDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSES THE REGION.
2) A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE MID TO LATE WEEK
NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SLOW-
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND A SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSH THROUGH. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CONCERNS ARE GOING TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. MONTICELLO IN
SULLIVAN COUNTY HAS AN IMPRESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST MODEL SOUNDING,
ESPECIALLY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PWATS EXCEEDING 2", SHORT CORFIDI VECTORS AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTH BRINGS SOME CAUSE FOR CONCERN, ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS AREA
RECENTLY SAW HEAVY RAINS JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING SEEMS HIGHEST IN THIS
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. INSTABILITY ALSO INCREASES
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH LONG SKINNY CAPE THROUGH A SATURATED
COLUMN, SO WITH ALL THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE, THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND WITH THE SHORT CORFIDI
VECTORS, TRAINING OF CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO STAY
SOUTH OF THIS AREA, SO DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.
THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO EXIT THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DRIER
AIR FUNNELS IN LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY FOR SOME OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE, SEVERAL FEATURES COULD COME TOGETHER
TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST, DRAWING UP WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL CHANNEL SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TOWARD
OUR REGION. FINALLY, A WEAKENING CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY LOOKS TO GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE WEEK. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO LOOKS TO TRY TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND PERHAPS STALL A BIT. SO
PUTTING EVERYTHING TOGETHER, THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DEW POINTS ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 60S TO
AS HIGH AS THE MID 70S. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
MVFR CEILINGS COULD SNEAK INTO KELM DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, RAIN SHOWERS WILL START TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE PRIOR
TO 18Z BEING AT KELM AND KRME. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MOST SITES.
ALTHOUGH, VFR CONDITIONS MAY HOLD AT SYR/RME THROUGH THE END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY, WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED
THUNDER; ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK/MPK
AVIATION...BJG/ES
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