010
FXUS61 KBGM 021046
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE NORTHWEST OF OUR
REGION. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL IMPACT THE
POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS, SO QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED IN THESE AREAS. AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY INTO MONDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSES THE REGION.
2) A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE MID TO LATE WEEK
NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SLOW-
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND A SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSH THROUGH. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CONCERNS ARE GOING TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. MONTICELLO IN
SULLIVAN COUNTY HAS AN IMPRESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST MODEL SOUNDING,
ESPECIALLY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PWATS EXCEEDING 2", SHORT CORFIDI VECTORS AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTH BRINGS SOME CAUSE FOR CONCERN, ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS AREA
RECENTLY SAW HEAVY RAINS JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING SEEMS HIGHEST IN THIS
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. INSTABILITY ALSO INCREASES
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH LONG SKINNY CAPE THROUGH A SATURATED
COLUMN, SO WITH ALL THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE, THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND WITH THE SHORT CORFIDI
VECTORS, TRAINING OF CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO STAY
SOUTH OF THIS AREA, SO DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.
THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO EXIT THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DRIER
AIR FUNNELS IN LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY FOR SOME OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE, SEVERAL FEATURES COULD COME TOGETHER
TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST, DRAWING UP WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL CHANNEL SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TOWARD
OUR REGION. FINALLY, A WEAKENING CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY LOOKS TO GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE WEEK. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO LOOKS TO TRY TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND PERHAPS STALL A BIT. SO
PUTTING EVERYTHING TOGETHER, THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DEW POINTS ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 60S TO
AS HIGH AS THE MID 70S. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TO START. MORNING SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF HOW MUCH CEILINGS WILL FALL THOUGH WITH SCATTERED
DECKS OF 2000 FT CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT BGM AND ELM, THESE
CHANGES MAY BE A BIT MUCH. STILL, CEILINGS WILL FALL TO AT LEAST
MVFR LATER TODAY WITH IFR/LIFR THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT EARLY MONDAY MORNING THOUGH LOW CEILINGS
WILL LINGER.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF
10 TO 15 KTS AND PEAK GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY CALM TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY...LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING; RESTRICTIONS
IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS AT
AVP.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED
THUNDER; ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK/MPK
AVIATION...BTL
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