713
FXUS61 KBGM 030024
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
824 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS AND QPF WERE INCREASED IN THE NEAR TERM, ESPECIALLY WEST
OF I-81 ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS AS THE NBM WAS UNDERDONE IN THIS
AREA. WIND GUSTS WERE INCREASED A BIT THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
REGION.
2) A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
OUT AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SUPPORTING UPPER
TROUGH. A BROAD BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH IS THE
FIRST OF A FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS FIRST
ROUND IS PRODUCING LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS
ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1.70-1.90 INCHES ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS
PAGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO OR EXCEED 2+ INCHES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE PA INTO THE CATSKILLS.
THIS REMAINS THE MAIN CORRIDOR FOR OUR FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW
SHORT MBE VELOCITY VECTORS WITH WARM CLOUD HEIGHTS OVER 12,000
FEET AND TALL, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID
TO LATE TOMORROW MORNING, ALL ADDING UP TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TRAINING OVER AN AREA THAT HAS SEEN
RECENT HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM WITH
THIS AREA SEEING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AS THIS AFTERNOON HAS
SEEN MORE STEADY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FALLING OVER THE TWIN
TIERS WEST OF I- 81 THAN PROJECTED BY THE NBM (THE CAMS HAVE
BEEN DOING A BIT BETTER), BUT GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THEIR
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH
SLOWLY SHIFTING WEST, A STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE STRIPES OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL SET UP, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS
TIME, BUT A FEW ISOLATED WARNINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE. ONE HOUR
COUNTY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS
IS CURRENTLY 1-1.50" OF RAIN WHILE 3 HOUR GUIDANCE IS 1.70-2.40"
OF RAIN. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD HEADWATER GUIDANCE IS JUST UNDER
2" FOR MOST POINTS IN CNY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.
OVERALL, A GENERAL 0.50-1.00 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH LOCALIZED POINTS OF 1.25-1.50" OR
GREATER POSSIBLE. TOTAL QPF WAS A COMBINATION OF NBM, WPC AND
CONSALL GIVEN THE STRUGGLES SO FAR EARLY IN THIS EVENT AND TO
SMOOTH OUT ANY HIGH CONVECTIVE BULLSEYE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
WHILE THE FOCUS HAS BEEN ON THE HYDRO SIDE OF THINGS, THERE IS
A LOW RISK FOR SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE POCONOS TO THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS MONDAY. MLCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500
J/KG AND MUCAPE RISES TO AROUND OR A BIT HIGHER THAN 1000 J/KG
WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS A BIT FASTER IN TIMING TODAY,
CROSSING MUCH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND DRIER AIR FUNNELS IN
AS PWAT VALUES FALL TO LESS THAN AN INCH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE NEXT FEATURE, POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SEVERAL FEATURES ALL LOOK TO COME TOGETHER TO INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE BERMUDA HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EVEN
MORE WEST, DRAWING UP PLENTY OF VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM
THE SOUTH AND DRIVING UP DEW POINTS. MEANWHILE A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
WILL CHANNEL WAVES OF ENERGY TOWARD OUR REGION AND A WEAKENING
CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LOOKS TO GRADUALLY
DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
LATER IN THE WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO LOOKS TO TRY
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND
PERHAPS STALL A BIT. SO PUTTING EVERYTHING TOGETHER, THERE WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DEW POINTS ANYWHERE
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S IN SPOTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME VERY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
03Z FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT BGM WHERE MODERATE RAIN AND MVFR
VSBYS WILL PERSIST. RESTRICTIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
LIGHT FOG. SOUTH WINDS, SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST,
REMAINING AROUND 5 KT, WILL HELP KEEP THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER
MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG. THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
MVFR, AND EVENTUALLY LOW-END VFR IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
ON MONDAY.
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER; ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...BJG/BJT
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