150
FXUS61 KBGM 030519
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
119 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THOUGH FRONT END OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM CONTAINED MORE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING AND IN A DISPLACED AXIS FROM WHAT
WAS INITIALLY ANTICIPATED, FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST
TODAY ONWARD AS HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
THREATS SHIFT MAINLY EAST WITH TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY, WITH RISKS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON.
2) AFTER A BREAK OF A COUPLE DAYS, A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN
WILL TAKE SHAPE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, AFTER
YIELDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING
SOME FLASH FLOODING SUNDAY EVENING. THOUGH THE AXIS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL SHUNT GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA WITH TIME, UNTIL
THEN WE COULD STILL HAVE ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN WHERE REPEATED
STRIPES OF MORE ROBUST SHOWERS CAN LINE UP.
WHILE THE FOCUS IN THE FIRST PHASE OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN ON
THE HYDRO SIDE OF THINGS, THERE WILL ALSO STILL BE A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS FROM THE POCONOS
TO THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS TODAY. MIXED LAYER CONVECTIVE
AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY (MLCAPE) VALUES INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 500 J/KG OVER POCONOS-CATSKILLS WHILE EXITING EAST AROUND
MID- AFTERNOON, WITH 30-50 KNOTS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
2-6KM LAYER POINTING TO A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET
WEATHER FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND MOST IF NOT ALL
OF WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
WITH ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER, BUT OUR NEXT MAIN RAIN CHANCES WILL FOCUS ON
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR SEVERAL REASONS. THE BERMUDA HIGH
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST, DRAWING UP PLENTY OF VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND DRIVING UP DEW POINTS. MEANWHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES WILL CHANNEL WAVES OF ENERGY TOWARD OUR REGION AND A
WEAKENING CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LOOKS TO
GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO
LOOKS TO TRY TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME AND PERHAPS STALL A BIT.
SO PUTTING EVERYTHING TOGETHER, THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DEW POINTS ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 60S
TO THE MID 70S IN SPOTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME UNCOMFORTABLE
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S EACH
AFTERNOON AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PROBABLY REACHING AT OR ABOVE 90
IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES
AROUND OR EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES, WE WILL AGAIN HAVE TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND IF WAVES ARE WELL-
TIMED DIURNALLY PERHAPS A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
03Z FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT BGM WHERE MODERATE RAIN AND MVFR
VSBYS WILL PERSIST. RESTRICTIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
LIGHT FOG. SOUTH WINDS, SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST,
REMAINING AROUND 5 KT, WILL HELP KEEP THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER
MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG. THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
MVFR, AND EVENTUALLY LOW-END VFR IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
ON MONDAY.
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER; ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...BJG/BJT
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